At the investor conference on the afternoon of February 18, 2025, representatives from Vietnam Prosperity Joint-Stock Commercial Bank (VPBank, HOSE: VPB) shared their insights on the macroeconomic outlook for 2025 and the business plan for the Group and its subsidiaries within the ecosystem.
Numerous macroeconomic factors are expected to support the banking industry in 2025.
Mr. Vu Minh Truong, Director of VPBank’s Asset Management Center, assessed that in 2025, FDI will continue to be a positive driver for economic growth, especially with the government’s recent decree related to investments in high-tech industries. FDI inflows into Vietnam will create a strong growth momentum.
The world is on a path of lowering interest rates, and while the US has limited room for further cuts, this will benefit Vietnam’s exports.
Geopolitical issues, particularly in the Middle East and regarding Russia-Ukraine relations, are expected to stabilize.
Importantly, the government is considering taxes on the real estate sector, with higher taxes for property speculation, which will help stabilize the market and create a better foundation for future development.
These factors bode well for the economy in 2025; however, there are still some concerns. The policies of US President Donald Trump could impact global investment and consumption due to widespread tariffs.
Domestically, Vietnam’s exchange rate and foreign currency inflows and outflows are imbalanced, which may put pressure on interest rates. While the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) and the government aim to maintain low-interest rates to support the economy, it will be challenging to sustain the current rate levels. If interest rates are not well-managed, it could pose a risk to the real estate sector.
Overall, inflation is expected to rise above 4% in 2025. Credit growth is anticipated to outpace deposit growth, impacting funding costs. Therefore, rising interest rates will also affect banking activities. Banks strive to maintain diverse funding channels, including CASA, to manage NIM without adverse effects.
VPBank targets a 20-25% increase in consolidated profits and plans to pay dividends.
Ms. Luu Thi Thao, Permanent Vice President of VPBank, shared that expanding the VPBank ecosystem remains a key strategic focus for 2025. Given the current macroeconomic landscape, VPBank aims for growth of around 20-25% this year. If the economy performs better than expected, a more ambitious scenario will be pursued.
Retail and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) remain the two strategic segments, with VPBank targeting a 30-40% growth rate for these sectors.
With the mandatory acquisition of GPBank, VPBank has significant room for credit growth. The challenge lies in achieving sustainable growth. As real estate remains a growth opportunity for the bank, VPBank continues to provide loans in this sector, thereby creating a foundation for retail lending. In addition to traditional segments, VPBank also explores opportunities in industrial real estate lending, green lending, social housing, and more, aligning with profit targets.
By the end of 2024, the FDI customer base exceeded 500 customers, with nearly VND 9,000 billion in deposits and almost VND 4,000 billion in loans. The goal is to reach 1,000 customers by 2025.
VPBank sets a baseline target of 20-25% credit growth and over 30% deposit growth, aiming to maintain NIM in 2025.
When the SBV stopped debt rescheduling at the end of 2024, VPBank’s restructured debt stood at VND 10,000 billion. Most loans have returned to normal after the restructuring period, with only 3-4% requiring further restructuring. In 2025, the bank aims to improve the quality of new loans while addressing old non-performing loans, contributing to a non-performing loan ratio of below 3%.
Along with the restructuring program and corporate governance improvements, subsidiaries such as VPBankS, OPES, and FE Credit have also finalized their action plans. The Group’s profit is expected to increase by 20-25% compared to 2024.
With this positive outlook, the bank’s Chairman has committed to a dividend program, and the specific ratio will be presented at the Annual General Meeting in April.
2025 marks the beginning of a new growth cycle for FE Credit.
Regarding FE Credit, Ms. Thao shared that the restructuring process, which began over 1.5 years ago, has yielded positive results in 2024.
FE Credit’s credit balance reached over VND 62,000 billion at the end of 2025, a 10% increase. New disbursements in 2024 grew by 40% compared to 2023.
During the restructuring, FE Credit strengthened partnerships with companies like The Gioi Di Dong to diversify its customer base and digitized its sales processes and products, focusing on multiple channels. Most of FE Credit’s core products, including personal loans and two-wheeler loans, experienced growth.
Funding costs are in line with the overall picture for the bank, with a 2% reduction in funding costs for both VPBank and FE Credit, and a 2.3% decrease for FE Credit specifically.
FE Credit collected over VND 2,800 billion in debt recoveries, a significant increase compared to previous years.
The restructuring of FE Credit focused on improving operational efficiency, optimizing management, and reducing operating expenses.
FE Credit demonstrated improved revenue growth, effective debt recovery, and cost control. While FE Credit has not returned to its pre-restructuring performance, achieving a profit of VND 500 billion is a positive development.
2025 is expected to bring positive signals for the economy and new opportunities for consumer lending. There is still significant room for growth in Vietnam’s consumer credit market, currently at just over 10%. This figure is much lower than other countries and regions, such as South Korea (40%) and Hong Kong (20%).
The year 2025 presents an opportunity for FE Credit to regain momentum, targeting a 15% increase in credit. This will be achieved through pillars of redefinition, consolidation, development, business growth, enhanced customer experience, process digitization, and building trust with customers.
“FE Credit’s challenges are not unique, and they are inherent to the consumer lending industry in Vietnam. Our market share and position remain unchanged, and we are confident that 2025 will mark the beginning of a new growth cycle for FE Credit,” affirmed Ms. Thao.
VPBank is formulating a restructuring strategy for GPBank.
Regarding the mandatory transfer of GPBank, Ms. Thao stated that the long-term goal is divided into specific phases.
Financially, the impact on VPBank is minimal. Among the “zero-dong” banks, GPBank is relatively small in terms of total assets and non-performing loans. According to the new Law on Credit Institutions, the acquisition of GPBank will not lead to the consolidation of financial statements or impact capital adequacy ratios. Therefore, it will not affect VPBank’s consolidated financial position.
However, when considering international financial reporting standards, VPBank will carefully assess and apply reasonable accounting standards after the transfer.
Capital injection into GPBank will be considered as part of the restructuring program, aiming to reduce losses and stabilize management. VPBank will then participate in capital contributions to support the bank’s recovery. These decisions will be presented for approval at the Annual General Meeting.
VPBank is taking the time to redefine its strategy for GPBank, focusing on identifying growth drivers and improving management capabilities and governance in the next 2-3 months. Once these aspects are addressed, the restructuring process will commence, with the goal of restoring GPBank’s financial targets by 2025.
– 10:46 19/02/2025
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