From Rice to Fruits: Vietnam’s Agricultural Rise and Its Impact on Thailand’s Dominance
Vietnam and Thailand have long been competitors in the agricultural sector, with their produce reaching key markets worldwide. A recent article by Thailand’s The Nation newspaper highlights the concerns of Thai entrepreneurs regarding their country’s dwindling control over agricultural exports. The article warns that Vietnam’s rapid ascent, fueled by consistent government policies and strategic investments, could soon surpass Thailand in this domain.
Screenshot of The Nation, Thailand’s article.
Mr. Smith Taweelerdniti, CEO of Nithi Foods, remarked that while Thailand used to lead ASEAN in agricultural exports, Vietnam has rapidly closed the gap through targeted investments in food technology and agriculture. Vietnam offers attractive tax incentives that lure more investors than Thailand. Its vast domestic market and strong purchasing power, despite lower wages, are also advantageous.
Vietnam also directly competes with Thailand in crucial export markets such as the US and China. According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE), the country’s agricultural exports reached a record high of US$62.5 billion in 2024, an 18.7% increase from 2023. Fruits, rice, coffee, and cashews were among the top-performing commodities. For 2025, the MAE aims for a sector-wide GDP growth of 3.3%–3.4% and a total export value of US$64–65 billion.
In contrast, Thailand, despite being a regional agricultural powerhouse, is projected by its International Trade Promotion Bureau to achieve only a 5.4% increase in agricultural and agro-industrial exports in 2025, amounting to US$52.19 billion. This falls short of Vietnam’s ambitious targets. Key export commodities for Thailand include fruits, rice, rubber, chicken, and cassava.
Currently, Vietnam and Thailand are the world’s leading rice exporters, but there have been instances where Vietnamese rice prices surpassed those of Thailand and India, making it the most expensive globally. Thai media has expressed concern among Thai businesses, citing Vietnam’s ST25 rice variety—which won the title of World’s Best Rice in 2023—as a symbol of its growing competitive advantage.
In 2024, Vietnam’s rice exports reached a record high of 9.2 million tons, earning US$5.7 billion, a 12.9% increase in volume and a 23% surge in value compared to 2023. Vietnam is closing in on Thailand’s production, which exported 9.9 million tons of rice worth US$6.8 billion in the same year. If Vietnam sustains its growth trajectory, it may soon surpass Thailand’s output.
Vietnamese customs data for the first quarter of 2025 supports this trend: rice exports reached nearly 2.31 million tons, earning US$1.21 billion, a 5.82% volume increase. In contrast, Thailand’s rice exports plummeted by 30% during this period, reaching only 2.1 million tons.
Thailand’s Finance Minister, Mr. Pichai Chunhavajira, acknowledged, “Thailand is currently the world’s second-largest rice exporter, but this position could be lost if the global market experiences significant fluctuations or if the US imposes tariffs exceeding 10% on Thailand.”
Vietnam’s Agricultural Expansion: From Rice to Fruits
Vietnam’s agricultural prowess extends beyond rice to include fruits, with durian—Thailand’s flagship product in the Chinese market—facing stiff competition. While Thai durian exports to China declined by 13% in volume and 9% in value (amounting to nearly US$3.8 billion) in 2024, Vietnam’s exports soared by 38%, reaching US$3 billion. Vietnam’s market share in China increased from 33% to 41.5%, compelling Thailand to reassess its strategies to maintain its edge.
Vietnam is also making inroads with other fruits in significant global markets like the US and China. Ms. Rungphech Chitanuwat, ASEAN Portfolio Director at Informa Markets, asserts that Vietnam has indeed overtaken Thailand in rice and fruit exports. She attributes this success to Vietnam’s decisive government, substantial investments in scientific research, and infrastructure upgrades. In contrast, Thailand faces challenges due to bureaucratic inertia, policy shifts, and an aging population.
“If this situation persists, Vietnam could surpass Thailand in multiple sectors within three to five years,” Ms. Chitanuwat warns.
