Mr. Nguyen Van Loc, Chairman of the Vietnam Sugarcane and Sugar Association, reported that the cumulative output from the beginning of the crop year to the end of May 2025, the industry had crushed 12,680,100 tons of sugarcane and produced 1,250,970 tons of various types of sugar.
May 2025 witnessed concerning fluctuations in the domestic and international sugar markets. While global sugar prices plummeted to a three-year low, the Vietnamese domestic market continued to face heavy pressure from excess supply, weak consumption, and complex developments in sugar smuggling, with no signs of abating despite a series of decisive directives from the government.
GLOBAL SUGAR PRICES HIT THREE-YEAR LOW
Citing data from the International Sugar Organization (ISO), Mr. Loc stated that in the first half of May 2025, raw and white sugar futures prices showed a slight upward trend due to improved macroeconomic expectations after the resumption of trade dialogue between the United States and China.
However, in the latter half, positive signals from abundant supply in key exporting countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand quickly pushed sugar prices downward. Additionally, the impact of tax policies in the United States further exacerbated the decline, particularly in the Americas.
“Currently, inventory levels at sugar mills have exceeded 70% of the 2024/25 crop year production. This is a record-high inventory level in the history of the sugar industry.”
Mr. Nguyen Van Loc, Chairman of the Vietnam Sugarcane and Sugar Association.
The average global raw sugar price for May 2025 was recorded at 17.69 cents/pound, a decrease from April 2025’s 18 cents/pound and significantly lower than March 2025’s nearly 19 cents/pound—marking the lowest level in three years. Similarly, the average white sugar price reached only $487.15/ton, a sharp drop from $511.73/ton in April 2025 and $531.37/ton in March 2025.
Data from Tradingeconomics confirmed the continuous downward trend in sugar prices since the beginning of 2024, extending into June 2025. In some countries in the region, such as the Philippines, China, and Indonesia, domestic sugar prices remained high.
Specifically, in Manila, Philippines, wholesale refined sugar prices fluctuated around ₱3,648–₱3,718 per 50kg bag in May 2025. In Indonesia, the average sugar price ranged from Rp18,700–Rp18,800 per kg. Meanwhile, in China, the spot price for white sugar remained at CN¥6,135–CN¥6,160 per ton.
In contrast, Vietnam’s sugar prices were the lowest in the region, mainly due to ample supply from the remaining inventory of the 2023/24 crop and the new 2024/25 crop entering the market. Additionally, the trend of consumers shifting to using high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) has significantly weakened market demand.
This situation has put many domestic sugar mills in a dilemma. Many businesses are forced to sell below production costs to repay debts to farmers, yet they still struggle to find buyers. According to the Vietnam Sugarcane and Sugar Association, inventory levels at mills have exceeded 70% of the 2024/25 crop year production—a record high in the industry’s history.
ILLEGAL SUGAR SMUGGLING PERSISTS
While the domestic sugar industry struggles with excess inventory and low prices, another nagging issue remains unsolved: sugar smuggling.
In May 2025, commercial fraud and sugar smuggling activities were observed in many provinces, with large quantities and increasingly sophisticated methods. In Kien Giang, authorities seized 60 tons of sugar with signs of label and origin violations, worth over VND 1.2 billion.
In Nghe An, 3 tons of Thai golden sand sugar without invoices or labels were seized in the center of Vinh city. In Phu Yen, a truck transporting 33 tons of Thai white sugar was inspected without a legal owner. In Binh Dinh, authorities seized nearly 4 tons of smuggled sugar hidden in a civilian warehouse. More seriously, in Quang Tri, two individuals were fined VND 70 million each for trading in smuggled food products, with 9,500 kg of Thai sugar of unknown origin as evidence.
“Despite the government’s consecutive strong directives, such as Official Dispatch No. 65/CD-TTg dated May 15, Directive No. 13/CT-TTg dated May 17, and Official Dispatch No. 72/CD-TTg dated May 24, on the intensive prevention of smuggling, counterfeit goods, and commercial fraud, the actual market situation shows modest improvements.”
Mr. Nguyen Van Loc, Chairman of the Vietnam Sugarcane and Sugar Association.
Along with smuggled sugar, another pressing concern for the Vietnamese sugar industry is the significant increase in imported high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS). According to the General Department of Customs, HFCS imports in May 2025 were equivalent to the same period last year, but the consumption shift from cane sugar to HFCS is more evident this year, especially in the food and beverage industries, due to its lower price and high substitutability.
This not only affects domestic sugar consumption but also has long-term implications for the sustainable development of the sugar industry, which directly affects the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of farming households.
According to Mr. Loc, the current picture of the sugar market is not optimistic: declining prices, sluggish consumption, record-high inventory, and rampant smuggling. Therefore, policy efforts need to be swiftly translated into effective actions, ranging from controlling smuggled sugar, monitoring the HFCS market, to promoting the consumption of domestically produced sugar. Otherwise, the sugar industry, which has already gone through many ups and downs, will face even more formidable challenges in the future.
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