Becamex IDC (BCM): Forging Ahead with the Merger of Binh Duong and Ho Chi Minh City

According to VCBS’s analysis report on Becamex IDC (BCM), the company, as a leading real estate enterprise in Binh Duong with a large land fund, will benefit from the merger of Binh Duong and Ho Chi Minh City, unlocking new avenues for growth.

VCBS asserts that the merger of Binh Duong, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, and Ho Chi Minh City will create a super metropolis with a formidable economy, population scale, infrastructure, and investment appeal. This, VCBS believes, will serve as a powerful catalyst for the recovery of the Binh Duong real estate market.

Given its vast land bank and prime location within the merger zone, VCBS anticipates significant advantages for BCM. The company’s urban projects are predominantly located in Thu Dau Mot City and Di An, with a particular focus on the key project of Binh Duong New City, spanning 1,000 hectares. Post-merger, these areas will be repositioned as extensions of Ho Chi Minh City, attracting high housing demand and boosting real estate values.

Fig 1: Strategic location of BCM’s projects in the context of the merger (Source: VCBS)

Additionally, following the merger, BCM will operate under the management of the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, taking on the role of infrastructure developer in the country’s largest economic hub.

On May 19, 2025, BCM commenced the construction of Cay Truong Industrial Park and Bau Bang MR Industrial Park, adding 840 hectares to their commercial land bank. With their current industrial parks boasting occupancy rates above 80%, VCBS anticipates that these new developments will be operational by 2026, providing significant growth momentum for BCM in the 2026-2028 period.

Fig 2: BCM’s new industrial parks: Cay Truong and Bau Bang MR (Source: VCBS)

With Binh Duong poised to serve as the industrial hub of the Ho Chi Minh City-Binh Duong-Vung Tau region, VCBS suggests that HCMC’s annual industrial land use targets could be allocated to Binh Duong, and more aggressive investment incentives may be applied.

While new industrial park supply in Binh Duong struggles to keep up with demand, VCBS adjusts the rental growth potential for projects in the 2026-2028 period to 0-3%, considering tax policy factors and the surge in industrial park supply expected in the coming years.

Positive Outlook for BCM’s Projects and Financial Performance

Looking ahead, VCBS anticipates improved performance for the Binh Duong New City project, given the planned metro line connecting Suoi Tien and Thu Dau Mot (expected completion in 2028). This will reduce travel time between BDNC and HCMC, making it more attractive for residents amid rising real estate prices in HCMC.

Furthermore, the Becamex Green City project in Thu Dau Mot, with a total area of 18 hectares and an average selling price of approximately VND 35 million per square meter (excluding rough construction), has been on the market since Q1 2025. VCBS projects that this development will generate cash flow of around VND 3,200 billion in the next 1-5 years.

With their remaining commercial land bank, VCBS expects BCM to transfer about 15 hectares of land annually, bringing in approximately VND 3,500 billion in cash flow per year and alleviating financial debt burdens.

Fig 3: BCM’s expected cash flow from land transfer (Source: VCBS)

However, VCBS notes that the high preliminary countervailing duties imposed by the US on Vietnam may exert pressure on BCM’s financial performance and land lease revenue in 2025.

Nonetheless, VCBS does not foresee a massive FDI withdrawal from Vietnam. Industrial parks with favorable locations and well-connected infrastructure will continue to hold strong appeal for investors.

In the long term, Binh Duong’s prospects for FDI attraction remain positive due to its well-developed transportation and logistics infrastructure, including ICDs (inland container depots) and a road network that seamlessly connects to HCMC, key seaports, and airports in the region.

Infrastructure development in the southern region, including Binh Duong, is witnessing renewed momentum from 2025 to 2028. Notably, the completion of the Ho Chi Minh City-Thu Dau Mot-Chon Thanh expressway will significantly boost investment attraction in peripheral areas like Bau Bang district, a strategic hub for BCM’s business activities.

VCBS projects BCM’s revenue for 2025 to reach VND 6,075 billion, representing a 16.27% increase, with a net profit of VND 2,466 billion, a 13.9% rise. For 2026, they forecast BCM’s revenue to reach VND 7,066 billion, with a net profit of VND 2,919 billion.

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