Vietnam’s Market Upgrade and the Potential Wave of Foreign Capital
According to Vietnam’s government-issued stock market development strategy through to 2030, the country is expediting reforms to advance from a frontier market to an emerging market status. This move not only elevates the nation’s standing but also unlocks the potential to attract billions of dollars in investment from ETFs, passive funds, and active international capital.
In September 2025, Vietnam’s stock market entered a phase of heightened interest from global investors as FTSE Russell prepared for its periodic review. After years on the watchlist, the prospect of an upgrade to emerging market status is closer than ever. SSI Research’s latest report also indicates that Vietnam is likely to be announced as upgraded by FTSE Russell in October 2025. This event could attract approximately $1 billion in ETF funds from index-mimicking funds. Historical data from other markets shows that stocks often perform well even before the upgrade, fueled by expectations of increased foreign investment and improved investor sentiment.
With a market capitalization of approximately 90,000 billion VND (nearly $3.4 billion), average 30-day liquidity of $15.1 million, and nearly 24% room for foreign investment, MSN (Masan Group) emerges as a strong candidate for inclusion in global indices in the event of an upgrade. However, MSN’s appeal extends beyond technical criteria to its solid fundamental business strengths.
Robust Consumer-Retail Ecosystem
The key differentiator that sustains MSN’s long-term appeal to investors is its business model, which is intrinsically linked to essential consumer needs—the most sustainable growth sector in Vietnam. With a population nearing 100 million, the total retail sales of goods and consumer services in 2024 were estimated at 6,391 trillion VND, a 9% increase from the previous year, presenting vast opportunities for market-leading enterprises.
Currently, MSN boasts an integrated consumer-retail ecosystem that spans production and distribution, including Masan Consumer (MCH), WinCommerce (WCM), Masan MEATLife (MML), and Phúc Long Heritage (PLH). WCM, with nearly 4,200 stores, leads the modern retail market share, providing a distinct advantage in product distribution for MCH and MML.
According to the company, the Q2 2025 financial results not only showcased impressive growth but also reflected how Masan is maximizing the strengths of its integrated ecosystem across consumer goods, retail, food, and high-tech materials sectors. During the quarter, the Group recorded 18,315 billion VND in revenue and 1,619 billion VND in pre-MI profit, bringing the six-month cumulative to 2,602 billion VND—nearly double that of the same period last year and surpassing 50% of the full-year plan. This performance attests to the synergy among the core business segments.
WinCommerce, in particular, reaffirmed its role as the “locomotive” of modern retail, posting profits for four consecutive quarters. Q2 revenue grew by 16.4%, driven by the strategy to expand the WinMart+ model in rural areas, bringing the system closer to rural consumer demands, a rapidly growing market. Meanwhile, Masan MEATLife accelerated with 2,340 billion VND in revenue, a 30.7% increase, by focusing on the processed meat segment, aligning with consumers’ shift towards higher-value products. In parallel, Masan High-Tech Materials capitalized on the recovery of strategic mineral prices to enhance profit margins, contributing to the overall growth trajectory.
Customers shopping at WinMart supermarket
|
Attractive Valuation in the Context of Market Upgrade
These positive financial results not only reinforce MSN’s position as a leading consumer-retail enterprise but also establish a solid foundation for the MSN stock to become even more appealing to domestic and international investors.
On the stock exchange, MSN maintains its status among the largest capitalization stocks on HOSE and exhibits stable liquidity within the VN30 group, ensuring the capacity to absorb capital inflows in the billions of dollars. Notably, the shareholder restructuring in recent years has significantly improved the free float ratio, making the stock more compatible with the selection criteria of global indices. SSI Research identifies this as a reason why MSN is considered one of the retail businesses most likely to directly benefit from capital inflows upon the market upgrade.
Valuations by securities companies further bolster the confidence of analysts. KBSV estimates MSN’s fair value at 100,000 VND per share using the SoTP model; VCBS recommends a “BUY” rating with a target price of 93,208 VND per share, approximately 14% higher than the market price; while VCI sets a target price of 101,000 VND per share, underscoring the advantages of their expansion strategy and optimized product portfolio.
As Vietnam moves closer to achieving its market upgrade goal, international institutional investors will prioritize stocks that meet both technical criteria and demonstrate intrinsic growth potential. MSN, with its foundation in essential consumer goods, improved financial performance, and ample room for foreign investment, is emerging as a potential gateway for foreign capital to penetrate deeper into the Vietnamese market.
– 06:58 08/09/2025
Elevating the Stock Market’s Status: Ministry of Finance’s Reform Push for a Global Financial Hub
I hope that suits your needs and captures the essence of the original text with a fresh perspective. Let me know if you would like me to tweak it further or provide additional ideas to enhance the title.
The legal reforms, mechanisms, and inter-sectoral coordination implemented in unison demonstrate the government’s strong resolve. However, the key lies in the effective enforcement of these policies. Additionally, the positive appraisals from international organizations and the anticipated upgrade of the stock market’s status in the coming future serve as a driving force for Vietnam to emerge as an attractive destination in the region.
Attracting Foreign Investment Through the Stock Market
In the most optimistic scenario, the FTSE reclassification could bring up to a whopping $10.4 billion to Vietnam’s stock market.
The Stock Market Guru’s Guide to IR: Riding the Wave of Market Upgrades
The Vietnamese stock market is on the cusp of a historic opportunity as FTSE Russell is considering an upgrade in October 2025. This upgrade will potentially attract a significant influx of foreign capital. However, not all businesses will be able to capitalize on this opportunity, as suggested by Nguyen Thi My Lien, Head of Analysis at Phu Hung Securities Co..
“It’s Time to Aim for MSCI’s Market Upgrade Standard”
The Vietnamese stock market has reached a pivotal moment in its journey towards recognition as a leading emerging market. With the recent advancements and meeting the criteria set by FTSE Russell for an upgrade from frontier to emerging market status in their September 2025 review, the focus now shifts to attaining the prestigious recognition from MSCI.
Unlocking VPB’s Stock Potential: The CASA Advantage
In the first half of 2025, VPBank witnessed an impressive growth in its CASA, reaching a scale of nearly VND 100,000 billion, thanks to a series of breakthrough initiatives. This remarkable achievement has played a pivotal role in sustaining the bank’s robust profit growth. As a testament to its success, the bank’s stock, VPB, has consistently reached new heights, attracting significant foreign investment.
