According to the latest residential real estate report by National Securities Corporation (NSI), Vietnam’s property market is showing strong signs of recovery after a slowdown. A surge in supply, particularly in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, has fueled a notable upturn, setting the stage for a promising 2026.
In Q3/2025, the residential real estate supply reached over 37,600 units, with an absorption rate of 73%. Supply was concentrated in Hanoi (32%), Ho Chi Minh City (28%), and other regions (40%). Compared to the previous quarter, this figure saw a significant increase, marking the return of major projects after a period of market observation.
Transaction volumes for apartments and individual houses remained stable, while national inventory rose, primarily in the condominium and housing segments. This reflects a gradual recovery in real demand from residents, focusing on residential properties rather than land speculation, which saw a slight decline in interest.
Selling prices in the two major cities continued to rise. In Hanoi, the average primary market price reached 91 million VND/m², surpassing Ho Chi Minh City’s 87 million VND/m². This is mainly due to the concentration of supply in the high-end and luxury segments, while projects priced below 60 million VND/m² remain limited.
NSI’s analysis of key indicators suggests that 2026 is likely to be a breakout year for real estate companies.
Hanoi remains a focal point with a primary supply exceeding 10,300 units, a 48% increase from the previous quarter. New projects are concentrated in Tay Ho, Cau Giay, and Long Bien, with high-end and luxury segments dominating. A shift towards suburban areas like Dan Phuong and Gia Lam is also evident, driven by improved transportation infrastructure.
Notable projects include Jade Square (IFG, Bac Tu Liem) with 750 units priced at 105–120 million VND/m²; Sun Feliza Suites (Sun Group, Cau Giay) with 1,667 high-end units; and Trinity Square (Masterise, Long Bien) with 4,500 mid-range units priced at 70–90 million VND/m². By year-end, projects like Lumiere Orient Pearl and Sunshine Legend City are expected to launch, further elevating price levels.
In Ho Chi Minh City (including Binh Duong and Ba Ria–Vung Tau post-merger), supply reached 6,700 units, a slight 5% decrease from the previous quarter but a fourfold increase compared to the same period in 2024. Supply primarily came from the old Ho Chi Minh City (38%) and Binh Duong, featuring luxury projects like The Prive (DXG, District 2) with 3,100 units priced at 120–150 million VND/m²; and Lumière Midtown (Masterise, District 2) with 800 units priced at 110–130 million VND/m².
Average prices rose by 10% from the previous quarter, lower than Hanoi due to the availability of mid-range projects. By year-end, major projects like Eaton Park (Gamuda Land) and Vinhomes Green Paradise (VHM, Can Gio) are expected to significantly boost supply in the Southern region.
Despite a less vibrant Q3, NSI’s analysis of key indicators suggests that 2026 is likely to be a breakout year for real estate companies, with a series of major projects set for delivery throughout the year. Record-high cash levels, a nearly 14% increase in inventory, and a sharp rise in customer deposits (62% QoQ, 67% YoY) indicate strong project absorption, providing capital turnover flexibility and reducing reliance on bank credit.
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