The stock market witnessed a robust start to the month, with the index surging over 50 points from the previous week’s close. Large-cap stocks, particularly the Vingroup family, played a pivotal role in driving the index past key resistance levels, supported by gains in banking and retail sectors. Foreign investors, after months of net selling, unexpectedly turned net buyers this week, with strong buying pressure mid-week before a sell-off on the final trading day.
Volatility may return early next week before the market targets the 1,800-point milestone later in January.
According to Mr. Bùi Văn Huy, Deputy General Director of FIDT, after a near 200-point correction, the market entered a bottom-fishing and accumulation phase around the 1,580–1,650 range. From this base, the index transitioned to a balanced state, culminating in a notable breakout during the first week of December. However, the internal dynamics weren’t as impressive as the index’s performance, with significant divergence and liquidity improvements still lagging behind the previous peak. The VN-Index relied heavily on a few blue-chip stocks to sustain its upward momentum, indicating an emerging uptrend but one that lacks breadth and sustainability, typical of the early stages of a new wave following a sharp decline.
The expert predicts a high-probability scenario where the index continues its ascent towards the 1,750–1,760 resistance zone, followed by a technical correction, with the 1,710–1,730 range acting as support. This correction, if materializing early next week, could trigger low-priced buying interest, setting the stage for the VN-Index to approach the 1,800-point target later in December.
In this context, Mr. Huy emphasizes that the narrative has shifted from questioning a bull trap to assessing the quality of the recovery. Over the medium term, the probability of the VN-Index having bottomed around 1,580–1,600 is relatively high; however, in the short term, after a 10% rally from the lows, encountering volatility or even a correction of several dozen points near resistance levels is normal.
Regarding liquidity, while it has improved compared to the previous panic-selling phase, it remains significantly lower than the year’s peak and the previous quarter’s average. This reflects a less pessimistic sentiment, with bottom-fishing and institutional money returning, but most retail investors remain cautious after previous heavy losses.
Mr. Huy identifies three primary reasons for liquidity not exploding in line with the index’s rise. First, the VN-Index is nearing its previous peak, and valuations are no longer cheap. The market’s trailing P/E ratio stands at 16–17 times, higher than some regional markets and above recent historical averages, while 2025–2026 earnings growth, though expected to recover, comes with uncertainties.
Second, the high degree of divergence means that stocks directly benefiting from specific narratives, such as Vingroup, leading banks, and retailers, have surged, while many mid- and small-cap stocks, or sectors like securities, speculative real estate, and materials, have yet to attract significant inflows, causing investor hesitation in chasing prices.
Third, year-end macroeconomic and monetary factors create an invisible headwind. In this environment, institutional investors favor high-quality, liquid stocks, while retail investors are using less margin than before, making it challenging for overall liquidity to surge even as the index rises.
In summary, the current liquidity reflects a cautious rally, with early money flowing into leading stocks while the broader market remains on the sidelines, ready to engage during reasonable corrections or upon clearer signals of a new, sustainable price level.
Given this landscape, the appropriate strategy is to align with the trend while actively managing risk. Strategically, investors who missed the bottom should not chase prices but recognize the market’s new higher baseline. Portfolios should be structured in two layers: a core long-term holding of leading companies poised to benefit from 2025–2026 growth, and a smaller short-term trading layer to capitalize on T+ oscillations. Overall stock allocation should be moderate, avoiding excessive leverage as the index nears historical resistance.
Investors should focus on their portfolios rather than the VN-Index.
According to Mr. Nguyễn Tấn Phong, Securities Analyst at Pinetree, the VN-Index’s performance has been remarkably positive, with eight consecutive up sessions and a return to the 1,790s peak, but most investors are experiencing a “green on the outside, red on the inside” phase. Sectors like banking, retail, and food & beverages, which led early in the week, corrected in the final two sessions, indicating profit-taking pressure at the index’s upper resistance. Meanwhile, other beta sectors like securities and real estate are still bottoming out.
For next week’s outlook, Mr. Phong believes the VN-Index’s uptrend will continue, despite negative news, as the market has priced in these factors and established a medium-term bottom at 1,580. Additionally, the State Bank’s actions to support liquidity and stabilize the exchange rate, such as buying spot USD and selling 14-day forwards to commercial banks, and raising the OMO interest rate to 4.5% since May 2024, are positive for Vietnam’s stock market.
While a bottom has formed, the Pinetree expert cautions that the market may not break out immediately but will need more time to accumulate. Therefore, investors who successfully bottom-fished should consider partial profit-taking to protect gains and rebalance their portfolios.
For new investments, Mr. Phong advises avoiding beta sectors like banking, securities, and real estate due to significant overhead supply and longer recovery times. Regarding the overall index, as it is heavily influenced by the Vingroup family, investors should focus on their portfolios and the performance of their holdings, prioritize risk management, and avoid greed in the current environment.
Vietstock Weekly 08-12/12/2025: Climbing Back to the Peak?
The VN-Index extended its winning streak to four consecutive weeks, despite trading volumes remaining below the 20-week average. The Stochastic Oscillator has already signaled a buy, while the MACD is narrowing its gap with the Signal line. If the MACD confirms a buy signal soon, the outlook will become even more optimistic. The index is approaching its historical peak of 1,760-1,795 points, a critical resistance level that will determine the potential for further upside in the final months of the year.
Market Paradox: Index Gains, Portfolio Pains
Despite the VN-Index extending its winning streak to the 8th consecutive session today (December 5th), many investors are experiencing a sense of “index gains, portfolio pains.” While the VN-Index climbed higher, red dominated the market landscape.
VIC Stock and the Broader Equity Market
The market closed the week in a state of “green on the outside, red on the inside,” as the VN-Index gained ground, propelled by the robust performance of VIC shares. However, the broader market painted a different picture, with most other stocks showing signs of weakness.
Technical Analysis for the Afternoon Session of December 5th: Uptrend Continues
The VN-Index extended its winning streak to an impressive eight consecutive sessions, despite trading near its October 2025 peak. Meanwhile, the HNX-Index experienced a mild pullback as it retested the middle band of the Bollinger Bands indicator.
Foreign Investors’ Sudden Shift: Nearly VND 700 Billion Net Sold on December 5th – Which Stocks Were Hit Hardest?
Foreign investors’ transactions were a notable drawback as they shifted to net selling, amounting to approximately VND 678 billion.
