Europe’s Critical Shortage Unlocks Massive Opportunity for Vietnam: Earning Nearly $150 Million, While the World Competes, Only Vietnam Pioneers a Thriving Industry

The shortage of whitefish supply is currently a critical factor directly impacting pricing and market share allocation in the EU. According to analysis from the Norwegian Seafood Council, raw material and retail prices for cod and haddock in the EU are projected to continue rising, while challenges in the whitefish sector are unlikely to improve in the short term.

Notably, cod—a staple in whitefish consumption—is facing severe scarcity due to a sharp decline in catches from the Barents and Norwegian Seas. Despite efforts by producers to supplement supply with farmed cod, current production levels fall short of meeting market demand.

Compounding the issue, international trade policies and EU sanctions against Russia have disrupted imports of various whitefish products, further straining an already limited supply.

In this context, the demand for affordable and stable alternatives in the EU is expected to rise. This market gap presents a significant opportunity for substitute products, with pangasius emerging as a strong contender due to its cost-effectiveness, reliable supply, and versatility in processing.

In the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the EU reached $149 million, a 3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In October 2025 alone, exports totaled $15 million, an 11% decline from October 2024. While cumulative growth remains positive, monthly fluctuations reflect importers’ cautious sentiment amid economic volatility and whitefish supply shortages.

Import trends among EU member states show notable divergence. The Netherlands, the bloc’s leading market, saw a slowdown with October exports reaching $3.4 million (down 2%). Germany, the second-largest market, continued to weaken, recording only $3 million in October 2025 (a steep 32% drop). Spain demonstrated strong growth, surging 75% in October year-on-year. Belgium also rebounded positively, rising 1% in October and 19% in the first 10 months of the year.

This divergence highlights that while some traditional markets are slowing, demand in Southern and Western European countries is on the rise.

Amid persistent whitefish shortages in the EU, Vietnamese pangasius offers significant competitive advantages: competitive pricing, stable supply, and flexible processing capabilities aligned with European importers’ substitution needs.

Additionally, shifting EU consumer preferences toward convenience and value-added products present opportunities for Vietnamese businesses to expand offerings such as breaded pangasius, ready-to-eat items, and premium fillet cuts.

Markets like Spain, Belgium, and France are deemed highly promising due to their strong demand for cost-effective and easy-to-prepare products. Furthermore, improved compliance with sustainability standards such as ASC enhances pangasius’s reputation and acceptance in the EU, solidifying its role as a viable alternative amid escalating whitefish shortages.