Why Hasn’t the Exchange Rate Cooled Down Despite the State Bank Announcing USD Intervention Sales?

The USD price at commercial banks continued to increase to a new peak after the news that the State Bank of Vietnam began to intervene in the foreign exchange market from April 19.

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The State Bank of Vietnam on Saturday listed the central rate at VND24,272 per U.S. dollar, up VND12 from the end of last week.

The U.S. dollar price at commercial banks also hit a new high as Vietcombank listed its buying price at VND25,175 per dollar and selling price at VND25,485, both up VND12 compared to last week.

Eximbank listed its U.S. dollar selling price on par with Vietcombank while its buying price was a bit higher, at VND25,240 per dollar.

In the unofficial market, the U.S. dollar price also rose, with some foreign currency exchange offices listing the buying price at VND25,810 and the selling price at VND25,890, up VND20 per dollar compared to the end of last week. The unofficial U.S. dollar price is now just VND400 higher than the banking rate.

U.S. dollar prices at banks and in the unofficial market remain high

Notably, both the banking and unofficial U.S. dollar prices have continued to rise over recent days, after the State Bank of Vietnam announced it has started to sell U.S. dollars in an attempt to “cool down” the exchange rate since April 19.

According to initial findings, the State Bank said it is ready to intervene in the exchange rate by selling U.S. dollars to commercial banks facing negative foreign currency positions so as to bring them to 0. The State Bank’s listed intervention exchange rate was VND25,450, but some banks stated this morning that they have yet to buy foreign currencies from the authority.

Speaking to a reporter from Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper, financial expert Nguyen Duc Hung Linh assessed that the exchange rate may not have cooled down yet because relevant parties are still “observing the market.” Those holding U.S. dollars are hoping to sell at a more favorable rate and are therefore sitting on their assets. The State Bank’s selling price (VND25,450 per dollar) is currently lower than commercial banks’ selling prices (VND25,485 per dollar), which could anchor expectations in the short term.

“For the State Bank, selling foreign currencies to send a signal and test the market’s reaction is necessary to avoid draining foreign currency reserves. To assess the effectiveness of the central bank’s foreign currency sales, we need to monitor the situation for a few more weeks,” said Hung Linh.

Previously, at a press conference reporting on the banking sector’s operations in Q1/2024, the State Bank leadership said that fluctuations in the global economic and political context have caused domestic currencies in many countries to depreciate significantly, including strong economies. Their domestic currencies have depreciated by between 3 percent and nearly 9 percent. Vietnam has also followed this trend, with its Vietnamese dong per U.S. dollar exchange rate depreciating 4.9 percent since the beginning of this year.

SOURCEcafef
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