Reflecting on a year of free-falling interest rates

Savings interest rates in 2023 witnessed a race to the lowest levels in 20 years, dropping from a peak of 12% per year for the 12-month term in early 2023 to below 5% per year by the end of the year. Let's take a closer look at the unprecedented interest rate developments of the past year with Tiền Phong.

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January, 2:

Private commercial banks have raised the deposit interest rate to 10% for a 12-month term. In fact, ABBank and Saigonbank are attracting customers with a rate of 12% per year.

March:

Private commercial banks no longer have any banks listed with a 12-month deposit interest rate over 10% per year. The highest interest rate is 9.5% per year in SCB and 9.4% per year in BaoVietbank.

April:

The 12-month deposit interest rate has decreased significantly in recent weeks, especially after the State Bank of Vietnam has twice reduced the refinancing rate in March 2023 (on March 15 and April 3). The highest interest rate for a 12-month term is HDBank and GPBank at 8.8% per year. The Big4 group all have an interest rate of 7.2% per year.

May:

The highest interest rate for a 12-month term at NCB is 8.4% per year, while the Big4 group maintains a listed rate of 7.2% per year.

June:

The State Bank of Vietnam has continuously reduced the refinancing rate twice. Therefore, from March to April, the State Bank of Vietnam has reduced the refinancing rate four times. This has caused the deposit interest rate to decrease rapidly. With the same 12-month term, the highest deposit rate is at ABBank and CBBank at 8.1% per year. The lowest among the Big 4 banks is 6.8% per year.

Deposit interest rate fluctuations in 2023.

July:

Banks continue to compete in reducing interest rates. With a 12-month term, there are no banks offering a rate higher than 8% per year. The highest rate is VPBank at 7.9% per year. The Big4 group still has the lowest rate at 6.3% per year.

August:

The highest savings interest rate at a 12-month term is currently 7.7% per year at CBBank. In addition, some banks have high interest rates: Bảo Việt Bank at 7.5% per year, EximBank at 7.4% per year, GPBank, HDBank, Nam Á Bank at 7.1% per year, and VietCapitalBank at 7.35% per year.

September:

The race to reduce interest rates has not stopped as banks no longer offer rates above 7% per year. The highest rate is 6.75% per year at NCB for a 12-month term, while the lowest among the Big4 banks is 5.8% per year.

October:

The highest interest rate for a 12-month term belongs to GPBank at 6.55% per year. Next is Bảo Việt Bank and NCB at 6.3% per year, and CBBank at 6.2% per year. It is worth noting that ABBank offers the lowest rate in the market, with a 12-month deposit interest rate of 4.4% per year.

November:

The highest interest rate for a 12-month term is 6.2% per year at SHB and Oceanbank, and 6.1% per year at CBBank. ABBank continues to reduce its interest rate to 4.2% per year, the lowest in the market.

December:

The highest interest rate for a 12-month term is 5.7% per year at OceanBank. Next is NCB with an interest rate of 5.55% per year for a 12-month term. The popular deposit interest rate for a 12-month term is currently around 5% per year.

Aside from creating room to reduce lending interest rates, the banks’ reduction of deposit interest rates to an unprecedented low level has also been one of the solutions to “cure excess money” over the past year.

In the credit activity meetings of the State Bank of Vietnam, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, Dao Minh Tu, has repeatedly mentioned the reality that the entire banking system is having to “cure excess money”. Similar to businesses with excess inventory, commercial banks are also holding cash in stock.

According to the State Bank of Vietnam, the overall credit growth rate of the system is still low compared to previous years, mainly due to objective factors such as the impact of investment, production, business, and consumption. Some customer groups have demand but do not meet the loan conditions, and there is an impact from the capital absorption capacity of the real estate group.

According to the data of the State Bank of Vietnam, in total for the year 2023, the deposit interest rate has decreased by an average of 2.5 – 3% compared to the beginning of the year. Compared to the COVID-19 period, the 12-month deposit interest rate is lower by about 0.5%, but it is similar for the 6-9 month term.

In the analysis report on the banking industry for December 2023, Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) also stated that compared to the end of 2022, the average interest rate for medium-term deposits of the entire system has decreased by 2 – 2.9 percentage points, depending on the term. With this development, VCBS forecasts that the deposit interest rate landscape has little room for further reduction. However, in the economic recovery period, maintaining low deposit interest rates will be a priority. At the same time, maintaining low deposit interest rates for a long enough time is also a necessary condition to push down lending interest rates.