Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu
Reporter:We have just gone through a difficult year in many aspects. In terms of the economy, how do you evaluate the investment channels in 2023, sir?
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu: It can be said that 2023 was not a smooth year for investors in investment channels such as stocks (including stock and bond markets), real estate, gold, bank deposits, and foreign exchange.
Firstly, in the stock market, the VN-Index had unusual fluctuations. Foreign investors participated in the market with uncertainty, easily influenced by global events. Regarding bonds, there were not many new issuances in 2023, and the bond market almost froze after the impact of the Van Thinh Phat case.
Looking at the real estate market, the optimism and positivity were not as in previous years. Since the beginning of the year, the real estate market has faced capital difficulties due to tightened bond funds. The product liquidity in the market has sharply decreased, and real estate credit has not met expectations. Capital difficulties have led to a situation where ongoing real estate projects have been suspended. In general, real estate is not a promising investment channel in 2023.
While other investment markets were struggling, gold was chosen as a safe haven by the people, leading to a continuous increase in gold prices. The price of gold reached a new record when it reached 80 million dong per tael. If only considering the end of the year period, this can be seen as a shining investment channel in 2023. However, if considering the whole year, gold investors only gained a little over 6%, not higher than bank interest rates.
In summary, in 2023, the stock market was fluctuating, and the real estate market was uncertain. Gold prices rose sharply, making many people hesitant to invest. On the other hand, foreign currency is not an investment channel for the majority. In the context of other investment channels having “issues,” bank deposits are still popular among the people due to their safety, although the profit margin is not high.
Reporter: What influenced the performance of investment channels in 2023, sir?
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu: In 2023, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated. The global economy was facing a crisis due to high inflation in the US and Western countries. This led to the central banks having to increase interest rates. These are external factors that greatly impact Vietnam’s economy. Investment channels were also affected as a result.
Domestically, the Government implemented loose monetary policies and implemented business support policies. Specifically, deposit interest rates decreased significantly, promoting lower lending interest rates, reducing the cost of mobilizing capital, and reducing the debt burden on businesses. This has somewhat mitigated the negative impacts on investment channels. However, this alone is not enough to push typical investment channels like stocks and real estate into new developments.
Therefore, in the future, the Government needs to supplement other policies, as monetary policy alone is not sufficient. The synchronization of monetary and fiscal policies plays a very important role. The Government should promote fiscal policies such as infrastructure investment and taxation to create better conditions for businesses.
Reporter: Will the 2024 market be more positive for investors, sir?
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu: We hope for stability, but the performance of investment channels depends on many factors such as the global economy. The US presidential election is one of them. The expectation of the stable economic policies of the US in the coming time will create positive signals for the world economy.
Domestically, the Government’s policies are also expected to be effective. If the answer is “no,” then the Government needs to continue making appropriate adjustments. Favorable conditions from the global economic and political situations to Vietnam’s economy will contribute to stability and positive prospects for investment channels.
Reporter: How do you forecast the movements of investment channels in 2024?
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu: In the first half of 2024, the real estate market will still be sluggish. Legal issues need to be tackled more strongly to bring the real estate market back to a healthy development trajectory. In addition, banks will need to continue providing more active support to unlock capital flows. The real estate market may recover from the second half of 2024. Regarding bonds, Decree 65 is expected to be effective, especially in terms of credit ratings. This will have a significant impact on bond issuances in 2024.
Meanwhile, the gold investment channel may still attract investors’ attention. When the economy stabilizes, other investment channels such as real estate and stocks recover, and gold prices tend to decrease or move sideways. On the contrary, if the economic index faces many difficulties and other investment channels are sluggish, gold prices may increase due to people’s psychology of accumulation and hedging with gold.
The foreign exchange market may be more stable in 2024 as the US’s monetary policies become stable. The US may stop raising and instead maintain interest rates. This creates conditions for the VND exchange rate to maintain stability.
Reporter: Thank you very much, sir!
