A product helps Vietnam earn nearly 1.4 billion USD in just 60 days, expected to set a new record in 2024

Coffee is the surprise export item that has made a big impact in Vietnam’s agricultural sector. According to the latest report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, from the beginning of the year until the end of February 2024, all export groups in the agricultural sector of Vietnam have increased compared to the same period last year. As a result, the export turnover of these commodity groups reached $9.84 billion, an increase of 50.3% compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, the industry’s trade surplus reached $2.68 billion, a 2.9-fold increase compared to the same period in 2023.

Especially, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the first two months of 2024, Vietnam’s coffee export turnover reached $1.38 billion (an increase of 96% compared to the same period last year). This is the first time in the history of coffee that it has surpassed seafood to become the second highest export turnover item (after wood and wood products) in the agricultural industry.

Prior to this, according to the latest preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam exported nearly 57,000 tons of coffee in the first half of February 2024, with a turnover of $184.4 million. In total, from the beginning of the year to February 15, 2024, the total coffee export volume of Vietnam reached nearly 295,000 tons, with a turnover of $911 million.

Compared to the same period in 2023, the value of exports in the first two months of 2024 increased significantly. Currently, the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA) states that the average export price of coffee is nearly $3,100 per ton, equivalent to an increase of nearly 43% compared to the same period.

Expectations for a new coffee record in 2024

With optimistic signs of coffee prices in the first two months of the year, experts predict that Vietnam’s coffee exports could reach $4.5 – $5 billion in 2024. If achieved, this will also be a new record year for Vietnam’s coffee export turnover.

Prior to this, according to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s coffee export turnover reached $4.24 billion in 2023, an increase of 4.6% compared to 2022. This is also the highest level to date, and the second consecutive year that Vietnam’s coffee export value has exceeded $4 billion. In 2023, the leading coffee export markets for Vietnam were Germany, Italy, and the United States.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the world will not be short of Arabica coffee supply, but will face difficulties with Robusta. Currently, Vietnam is the world’s number one producer and supplier of Robusta coffee. Therefore, many countries around the world are accustomed to buying Vietnamese Robusta coffee. The ICO report points out that the price of Robusta coffee has reached a 30-year high, due to concerns about tightening supply in Vietnam.

In fact, the global Robusta coffee supply is still bottlenecked and there is still price resistance in the domestic markets of many major producing countries. In addition, the EU’s regulation that coffee is a commodity that must meet the Forest Anti-Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) also affects prices because many countries have yet to prepare the necessary procedures to meet these requirements. Therefore, Vietnamese coffee continues to benefit from higher prices.

In addition to the price advantage, according to experts, Vietnam’s ability to control the coffee export market, especially for Robusta, in the first few months of 2024, will provide a dual advantage in increasing export value. Furthermore, Vietnam’s coffee is currently in the peak season of abundant supply. Meanwhile, both Brazil and Indonesia are expected to reduce their export activities after massive sales in the second half of 2023.

References: Mard, Customs, VICOFA, ICO, Healthline