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According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s coffee exports in January reached 238,266 tons with a value of over 726 million USD, an increase of 14.8% in volume and 21.2% in value compared to the previous month. The average export price reached 3,095 USD/ton, an increase of 5% compared to the previous month.
Coffee is one of the products in which Vietnam has a dominant position compared to the world in terms of output. According to statistics from the General Statistics Office, Vietnam is currently the second largest coffee exporter in the world, only behind Brazil. Vietnam is evaluated as the country with the highest coffee productivity in the world, averaging 2.6 tons/ha of Robusta and 1.4 tons/ha of Arabica.
Source: General Department of Customs
Notably in January, in addition to major markets such as Europe, America, Japan, Thailand is increasing imports of this item from Vietnam with a sharp increase in output in number of markets. Specifically, in January 2024, our country exported 4,066 tons of coffee to Thailand, equivalent to over 12.9 million USD, an increase of 1,273% in volume and 601% in value compared to the same period last year.
The export price reached an average of 3,186 USD/ton, however, a decrease of 47% compared to the same period last year, going against the upward trend in other markets. Although witnessing the strongest increase, Thailand accounted for a very small proportion in the structure of Vietnam’s export markets.
Thailand is one of the agricultural competitors of Vietnam in the world market in many items such as rice, agricultural products, but in coffee, our country has a production volume of up to 62 times that of the Land of the Golden Pagoda. According to representatives of the Thailand Office of Agricultural Economics, in the past 5 years, Thailand has produced an average of 26,000 tons of coffee beans per year, with demand increasing from 70,000 tons to 90,000 tons over the past 5 years.
Coffee production in Thailand has also been continuously declining in the past 5 years. The quality of coffee is also uneven, with 70% of farmers concentrated in southern Thailand and careless selection of varieties leading to a decrease in productivity. Moreover, unpredictable weather also has a negative impact on farmers’ production, so the country depends on imports to meet coffee demand.
According to the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (Vicofa), coffee exports in 2024 will continue to be favorable. In particular, the current coffee price is increasing sharply, so although coffee export output to the world may decrease, the export value may still break through. Vicofa expects coffee exports to reach about 4.5 to 5 billion USD in 2024.
In general, coffee prices are expected to remain high for a long time due to limited global supply due to the decrease in coffee production in traditional coffee exporting countries such as Brazil, Honduras, Indonesia… predicted to decline. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), due to the influence of heavy rain, Indonesia’s coffee production for the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 16.6% compared to the previous crop year.
Surveying the domestic market, most people in Lam Dong province have sold the majority of coffee at the end of 2023 at a price of about 60,000 to 70,000 VND/kg. The amount of coffee stored by people is currently very small. Surveying until March 9, coffee prices are being traded around 90,500 – 91,200 VND/kg.
