The exchange rate as recorded at 1:00 p.m. on 04/15, the USD exchange rate listed at Vietcombank increased by 50 VND/USD in both directions compared to the previous week (04/12), reaching 24,860 VND/USD (buy) and 25,230 VND/USD (sell). This is also the highest price USD sales in Vietcombank’s business history from 2000 to now. This exchange rate is also not too far from the USD selling rate announced by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) on April 15 at 25,250 VND/USD.
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USD-Index movement in the last 5 years
Source: tradingview
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Interbank exchange rates continuously reaching historical peaks due to the pressure of increasing USD prices on the international market after Iran carried out an unprecedented attack with drones (UAVs) and missiles targeting Israel on the morning of 04/14.
Rising tensions in the Middle East are causing investors to seek safe havens, leading to a strong demand for USD
According to the latest currency market report by SSI Securities Company (SSI) brokerage firm, the listed exchange rates of VCB and the black market are both fluctuating in the historical peak zone. In the regular monthly meeting, the SBV also sent a signal that it would control the exchange rate according to a flexible mechanism and intervene to ensure market stability. The surge in exchange rates has also helped to significantly narrow the gap between domestic and global gold prices. Currently, the SJC gold price is only about 10 million VND/tael higher than the world gold price – a sharp decrease from the peak difference of nearly 20 million VND/tael in mid-February. The difference for gold rings is about 2 million VND/tael – down from 5 million VND/tael in mid-February.
Experts from Vietcap Securities Company believe that the main reason for the rise in USD/VND is the increase in the DXY index along with the deep negative gap in VND and USD interbank interest rates. Cautious sentiment in the foreign exchange market as investors watch for the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first rate cut, USD demand from some foreign companies and the oil industry. Meanwhile, in the unofficial market, gold and BTC prices are rising. These factors could continue to put pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate in April. However, Vietcap experts expect abundant foreign currency supply from FDI, high trade surplus and narrowing trade deficit in services (thanks to the continuous increase in international visitors) will ease pressure on USD/VND.
