In the first quarter of 2024, the Ministry of Finance reported that domestic market prices remained generally stable, in line with the price management scenario outlined by the Price Management Steering Committee. Prices of most commodities were relatively stable, supported by ample supply amid weak demand, especially for essential goods.
Need for a Coherent Price Adjustment Framework for Essential Commodities |
Regarding fuel prices, the Ministry of Finance collaborated with the Ministry of Industry and Trade to closely monitor global oil prices and adjust domestic fuel prices accordingly. As a result, since the beginning of the year, domestic fuel prices have undergone 5 decreases and 7 increases, while the price of mazut oil (FO) has experienced 4 decreases and 8 increases.
According to the Ministry of Finance, price management of government-controlled commodities has been conducted prudently in the first months of the year to create a safety margin for inflation control throughout the year.
Going forward, price management will be implemented flexibly in line with CPI movements, with appropriate adjustments and measures. Fuel prices will be managed in response to global price fluctuations, and the price adjustment cycle will be shortened.
Nguyễn Thu Oanh, Director of the Price Statistics Department (General Statistics Office), emphasized the ongoing strategic competition among major powers, the protracted Russia-Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, and escalating tensions in the Red Sea as potential risks that could shock global inflation due to supply chain disruptions.
Furthermore, global commodity prices remain high, while the world’s economic and political landscape continues to be volatile. “Vietnam relies heavily on imported raw materials for production, so fluctuations in global commodity prices will impact costs and prices, pressuring businesses and driving up domestic consumer prices,” Oanh explained.
Based on domestic market conditions in Q1 2024, an assessment of the global situation, and an analysis of factors affecting Vietnam’s inflation in the coming period, the General Statistics Office has developed three inflation scenarios for 2024.
The inflation scenarios are based on projected price movements of key consumer price index (CPI) components, such as food, electricity, fuel, healthcare, and education. The three inflation scenarios for 2024 correspond to average annual CPI rates of 3.8%, 4.2%, and 4.5%.
According to Nguyễn Thu Oanh, to achieve the inflation target set by the National Assembly, it is crucial to promptly develop a comprehensive and synchronized price adjustment plan and timeline across various commodities to avoid reactive policy implementation, especially for essential items such as electricity, fuel, healthcare, and education.
The government, ministries, and local authorities should closely monitor global price developments and inflation trends, providing timely warnings of potential risks to Vietnam’s prices and inflation to enable appropriate countermeasures that ensure adequate supply and price stability in the domestic market.
The Director of the Price Statistics Department also stressed the importance of closely monitoring the prices of essential commodities such as food, pork, fuel, and gas to implement appropriate management measures and proactively prepare for the year-end period to mitigate price increases. Additionally, price controls and measures to combat unreasonable price hikes and the spread of false information that destabilizes the market must be implemented.
Minh Chiến
