On June 26, the State Bank of Vietnam set the daily reference exchange rate at 24,258 VND/USD, an increase of 5 VND from the previous day.
Commercial banks also reported a slight increase in USD prices, with Vietcombank offering a buying rate of 25,250 VND and a selling rate of 25,470 VND, a 5 VND increase from the previous day. Other banks, including BIDV, Eximbank, and Sacombank, quoted similar rates.
Compared to the peak of around 25,500 VND in mid-April, USD rates in banks have cooled down significantly and remained stable in recent days.
In contrast, some foreign exchange points in Ho Chi Minh City quoted USD buying rates at 25,880 VND and selling rates as high as 25,960 VND. Some other places quoted selling rates of up to 25,970 VND, far exceeding the previous peak of over 25,800 VND in April.
Bank USD rates remain stable while those in the black market surge
According to a gold expert in Ho Chi Minh City, the rise in USD rates in recent days has been influenced by the strengthening of the USD in the international market. As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has increased by approximately 1.02% in the past month and remains above 105.67 points.
Additionally, analysts suggest that the increase in black market USD rates could be partly due to the demand for USD to import gold through border trade, as gold ring and jewelry prices remain 3-4 million VND higher than global rates.
Commenting on the pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate at present, the UOB Group’s Market and Global Economics Research Team stated that despite improved domestic fundamentals, the VND has been impacted by the broad strength of the USD in the second quarter of 2024.
“The VND may recover in the second half of the year as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut interest rates in September, cooling down the USD. Additionally, the VND could benefit from the continued recovery of the Chinese yuan (CNY) in the latter half of the year as China’s economy shows clearer signs of stabilization. The updated forecast for the USD/VND exchange rate is 25,000 VND in the last quarter of the year,” said UOB experts.
Meanwhile, the State Bank of Vietnam continues to intervene in the foreign exchange market to control exchange rate fluctuations.
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