Has the Best Season for Gold Passed?

The online seminar, “Investing in Gold, Stocks, or Real Estate in the Second Half of the Year?” held on the afternoon of July 5th, featured Mr. Bau as a speaker. He shared that in the first six months, gold rings outperformed other investment avenues such as stocks, bonds, USD, bank deposits, and government bonds, with a nearly 22% increase in gold ring prices.

Meanwhile, SJC gold bars saw a more modest increase of just over 4%. Mr. Bau believes that while the golden spring for gold has passed, new opportunities will arise. For instance, central banks may accumulate more gold due to pressures on reserve currencies, or the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, providing a boost to gold prices in the future.

Mr. Huynh Hoang Phuong, a finance expert and asset management advisor at FIDT JSC, agrees that gold still has potential. “Since the beginning of the year, we have recommended that investors include gold in their portfolios, specifically gold rings, as Vietnam is navigating policy-related challenges with gold bars,” Mr. Phuong explained.

According to Mr. Phuong, over the past decade, gold has been considered a high-risk, low-return investment. This is because, during extended periods of economic growth with low inflation, gold struggles to showcase its value. However, when examining a 50-year cycle, the story changes dramatically due to high inflation and heightened geopolitical risks, allowing gold to shine.

Mr. Phuong cited the period since the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, where inflation has surged, and geopolitical tensions have mounted. These macroeconomic factors favor gold, so investors should consider including it in their portfolios as these trends continue.

Mr. Ta Thanh Tung, Head of Research and Consulting at FDIT JSC, suggested that investors maintain gold in their portfolios but advised against a high allocation, recommending a defensive asset allocation of around 5%. In the short term, Mr. Tung believes gold still has room to grow in the remaining months of the year, although the potential is not as significant. A stronger global economy would contribute to more stable gold prices.

In the short term, investors can hold gold, but it may not be overly attractive to increase their allocation significantly. Other assets are more appealing for long-term holdings.

Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Analysis at Yuanta Vietnam Securities, views gold as a valuable asset during economic and political turmoil. However, the most turbulent phase is now behind us, so the upside for gold prices is limited.