The market has seen a decent uptick, leading to short-term bottom-fishing profits and some profit-taking. However, sellers have been cautious about pricing and previous low liquidity, so the pressure isn’t intense.
The market dipped throughout the morning, with clear profit-taking signals. Stock prices rose slowly, blue-chips hovered, and overall liquidity was low. This indicated a lack of aggressive trading to push prices higher. However, in the afternoon, the leading stocks stimulated market enthusiasm, resulting in an impressive rally.
The most notable event today was the afternoon rally, accompanied by improved liquidity. Bank stocks and some individual leaders, like FPT, led this rally. While the strength wasn’t overwhelming, it had a broad impact. Additionally, the supply restriction effect persisted, allowing price ranges to widen, especially for low-liquidity stocks.
The main drivers of this rally, which pushed the VNI above the MA20, were BID and TCB, with FPT also contributing to price stability. POW performed well but faced pressure towards the end of the session, resembling a peak test. Other blue-chips didn’t significantly impact the score.
Due to the low liquidity during the previous bottom-fishing sessions, except for the high-volume session on June 28, the short-term stock volume wasn’t excessive. Stocks in earlier price ranges had limited profits and even losses. The market’s resilience was evident as the morning’s price suppression attempts didn’t cause a significant decline, resulting in narrow price fluctuations for most stocks. When the leading stocks were pushed up, the stimulation of market enthusiasm was immediate, reflected in the positive change in market breadth towards the end of the session.
The weak selling pressure suggests stock hoarding, and as prices continue to rise, a larger portion of stocks will reach the breakeven point or turn profitable, adding to the retained stock volume. In the next 1-2 sessions, profit-taking pressure is expected to gradually increase. As caution prevails and money inflows remain limited, this increased selling pressure may entice waiting money inflows. Alternatively, impatience could drive up buying prices. In summary, the market is poised to encounter more efficient supply and demand dynamics, accompanied by higher liquidity.
Currently, the market is psychologically robust, with leading stocks easily influencing points and creating a broad impact. There’s no need to chase prices; instead, consider partial profit-taking or trading to lower your cost basis. A reliable price foundation requires sufficient volume accumulation.
Today, the derivatives market witnessed a significant overall decline in liquidity of 21% compared to yesterday, but activity intensified in the afternoon. The simple reason is that the narrow morning trading range didn’t offer many trading opportunities, with VN30 fluctuating around 1300.xx while F1 accepted a wide discount. Short positions were naturally disadvantageous, but going long was challenging due to VN30’s indecisive movement above 1300.xx, with a narrow range between 1300.xx and the underlying level of 1294.xx, which VN30 had never surpassed.
The ideal long opportunity presented itself in the afternoon when VN30 broke above 1300.xx, driven by leading stocks. Once the index surpassed this level and the morning high of around 1301, the F1 basis narrowed rapidly due to large long orders. These could be short covers or long accumulations. Regardless, this signal was noteworthy. When TCB, BID, and ACB were simultaneously pushed up, the rally became evident. VN30 surged to 1308.xx and tested this level twice before retreating. Sometimes, you only get one trading opportunity per day, but if you enter at the right setup, your chances of winning are high.
Today’s rally suggests a clear attempt to stimulate leading stocks, but money inflows remain limited. Profit-taking pressure is expected to increase in the coming sessions. The strategy is to trade stocks, adopt a flexible long/short approach in derivatives, and closely monitor basis and leading stock signals.
VN30 closed today at 1305.5. Tomorrow’s resistances are 1308, 1315, 1320, 1328, and 1335, with supports at 1302, 1291, 1286, 1279, and 1272.
“Stock Market Blog” reflects the personal views of the author and does not represent the opinions of VnEconomy. The views, interpretations, and predictions contained herein are those of individual investors, and VnEconomy respects the author’s perspective and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for any issues arising from the investment opinions and interpretations presented in this blog.
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