The Year-End Property Wave: A Forecasted Surge

According to experts, the real estate sector is poised for a strong recovery in the medium to long term, following a challenging period. With the recent enactment of three pivotal laws: the Land, Housing, and Real Estate Business Laws, the industry now has a solid foundation to build on. The "wave" of this recovery is expected to begin towards the end of 2024 and gain momentum in 2025, signaling a promising future for the real estate market.

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Ms. Pham Thi Mien, Vice President of the Research Market Research and Investment Promotion Consulting, Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, evaluated that the real estate market is undergoing a clear “transformation” after a series of supportive policies were launched, notably the cut in bank interest rates. This has helped boost the confidence of both sellers and buyers. Meanwhile, the market also witnessed the “awakening” of many old projects after a long period of hibernation, as well as the proactive move to release new projects by many investors.

The real estate market is predicted to catch the wave soon by the end of the year.

According to Ms. Mien, it can be affirmed that the Vietnamese real estate market has overcome its most challenging period. The market is witnessing an increase in both the supply of products and the demand for real estate.

As the market warms up, the most evident sign is the significant increase in new supply, which has led to more stable transaction rates. This has created favorable conditions for brokers, traders, and investors to kick-start their business campaigns to reach out to their large potential customer base.

According to OneHousing, the Hanoi market supply in 2024 is expected to reach 22,000 units, higher than the 2020-2023 period and equivalent to about 69% of the pre-Covid period in 2019. Among them, the luxury segment (approximately VND 50-80 million/sqm, excluding 10% VAT and 2% maintenance fees) will continue to gain market share and account for the majority – about 70% in the last six months of 2024 and about 68% in 2025.

Notably, in 2025, the market will see the addition of more ultra-luxury projects (from VND 80-230 million/sqm) in the West and North regions, while the mid-range segment (VND 30-50 million/sqm) is expected to account for only about 5% of Hanoi’s total supply.

Mr. Nguyen The Diep, Vice President of the Hanoi Real Estate Club, observed that many investors restarting old projects and launching new ones to quickly deliver products to consumers is a positive signal. It shows that businesses have grasped the psychology and needs of homebuyers.

Businesses understand that, at this time, releasing products at appropriate prices, along with the current low-interest-rate environment, will help them quickly sell out their inventory, which was previously considered “dead capital.”

“Now, enterprises that initiate projects and quickly sell new products will have the advantage of less competition in terms of supply, prices, and customers. This is also a reasonable time for many enterprises to release their inventory, break free from capital deadlock, and for homebuyers to access housing at more reasonable prices,” said Mr. Diep.

According to Mr. Nguyen Quoc Hiep, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Global Real Estate Investment Joint Stock Company, it is essential to restore homebuyers’ confidence to help the real estate market recover soon. Therefore, new supply entering the market must be reasonably priced, legally compliant, and implemented on schedule…

The government’s determination to revive the real estate market has been effective, and by now, there has been a certain level of “absorption.” However, it is worth noting that the market has only recovered by about 30%. The main reason for this slow recovery is the shortage of supply, especially affordable products.

Therefore, the Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and Real Estate Business Law 2023, which will take effect from August 1, are expected to resolve the current obstacles faced by real estate projects. As a result, housing supply will improve noticeably, meeting the needs of the people, and only then will it be a “bright” period for the market.

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