Is the Sky-High Price of $10,000 per sq. m. for Hanoi’s Suburban Land Legitimate or a Result of Speculative Bubble?

Introducing an exciting opportunity for investors and developers alike - a prime plot of land located in Dan Phuong District, just 20km from the heart of Hanoi. This lucrative piece of real estate garnered a winning bid of 99.2 million VND per square meter, an impressive double of its starting price.

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Investors Flock to Land Auctions

The Land Development Center of Dan Phuong District successfully auctioned 85 land plots in a recent event.

The auctioned plots included: two plots in the Dong Say – Tram Sau area (phase 3) and two plots in Dan Phuong commune, with a starting price of VND 42 million per square meter.

67 plots were located on N1 road in Ha Mo commune, with starting prices ranging from VND 40 million to VND 51 million per square meter.

16 plots were in the De Nhi area of Phuong Dinh commune (phase 2), with starting bids ranging from VND 35 million to VND 41 million per square meter.

With 85 plots up for auction, over 1,200 participants registered, indicating a strong interest in the land offering. The auction attracted a large number of attendees.

At the end of the auction, all 85 plots were successfully sold. The highest bid reached VND 99.2 million per square meter, double the starting price. These plots were located near the N1 road branch.

In contrast to the subdued atmosphere last year, land auctions in the outskirts of Hanoi have consistently drawn the attention of numerous investors since the beginning of this year.

In June, more than 100 plots in Me Linh District were also successfully auctioned, with the highest price exceeding VND 70 million per square meter. Land auctions have been vibrant in Dong Anh and Quoc Oai districts as well.

Caution Advised Against Price Manipulation

Real estate experts predict that, along with legal changes, the real estate market will heat up in the last months of 2024, stimulating investor psychology to some extent.

Hanoi’s land transactions are inching up, but prices remain high. Investors are advised to be cautious of price manipulation. Photo: Hong Khanh

In the land segment, investors assess that with the Business Law 2023 in effect, which includes new regulations to restrict “plotting and selling land,” the auctions attracting many investors are also a move to anticipate the market.

However, experts warn that in Hanoi’s market, where housing supply falls short of demand, auctions attract not only genuine buyers but also speculators. Therefore, it is possible that some investors manipulate prices in certain auctions to profit from inflating the value of surrounding lands…

In reality, after many auctions, numerous “land brokers” appear on social media groups dedicated to land trading, offering auctioned plots at the winning bid price plus a premium depending on the location. They also take the opportunity to advertise nearby lands.

The CEO of a Hanoi-based company assessed that Hanoi’s land transactions are gradually improving, but prices remain high. Land investors still suffer losses in many places. To improve liquidity, investors have to sell at a loss. However, the loss ratio has decreased, from 30-40% previously to around 20% now.

According to him, compared to the peak prices in 2021, there are areas where losses reach 30%.

Mr. Thanh Cong, director of a real estate exchange in Ha Dong, said that cut-loss land sales mainly occur in provincial areas far from the center. Lands close to the center, on major roads, or in populous areas experience minimal price reductions and fewer sales.

“Land transactions have shown positive signs recently, but a significant leap is not expected due to high prices. Many investors are still in the stage of monitoring and studying the market.

Given the challenging economic context, investors should carefully consider the hype surrounding land in outlying areas. The bustling atmosphere in certain areas may not reflect genuine investor activity but could be influenced by land broker maneuvers,” Mr. Cong advised.

Hong Khanh