The market remains in an uncomfortable state of uncertainty, with intraday profit-taking occurring amid low liquidity. Subsequently, active bottom-fishing pushes prices higher with improved liquidity. The recovery phase continues, leaving investors who are waiting for a market “retest” of the bottom in a difficult decision-making position.
The intraday correction range, liquidity, and closing results remain in line with the high level of skepticism. Most stocks are still exhibiting the results of ineffective T+ momentum trading, as prices recover to higher levels but not high enough to create excessive excitement. Particularly, with liquidity remaining low and the two exchanges matching less than 13k billion, the recovery phase is characterized by technical instability.
However, an increase in price does not necessarily require high liquidity, as each change in price depends on the determination and strength of buyers and sellers. With fewer sellers, even a small amount of money can push prices up. Of course, a strong influx of cash is necessary for a robust upward trend, but the market is still in the early stages of recovery from last week’s shock, and things remain unclear with obstacles ahead. Therefore, the initial goal is to return to a stable psychological threshold, balancing supply and demand.
When liquidity is limited, stocks that are favored by many investors are more likely to experience significant fluctuations. Stocks with moderate liquidity also have an advantage over highly liquid stocks. Technically, the VNI is still in a short-term downtrend, but individual stocks are not; many are stabilizing and consolidating, ready for the next wave of increases.
Opening a buying position does not guarantee immediate profits. There are different perspectives and strategies for opening positions; some prefer to catch the exact bottom, while others prefer to buy when the uptrend is confirmed, accumulate when risks are perceived to be at their lowest, or even hold long-term without concern for potential price declines, focusing only on reasonable valuations. Therefore, assessing opportunities and risks is a dynamic and subjective process. A commonly agreed-upon question at this point is whether the most significant fears and risks have already been priced into the market.
The market is currently rising amid skepticism, and skepticism is always present. Ultimately, the daily developments will provide the answers. No investment strategy can guarantee 100% success; it’s all about risk management—maximizing gains when winning and minimizing losses when losing.
Today’s derivatives market is challenging to trade as the VN30 fluctuates within a wide range from 1260.xx to 1275.xx. Reaching 1275.xx requires the resonance of multiple pillars and market enthusiasm. Therefore, a safer entry point is around 1260.xx, but the challenge is determining when to close long positions. In reality, more than three-quarters of the time, the VN30 recovers from 1260.xx without significantly surpassing the reference point, so holding long positions for extended periods may not be very effective. Only in the last phase did the blue-chips show a strong resonance, with the VN30 approaching 1275 impressively.
With liquidity remaining low, there is still a chance for the underlying market to rise. The more skeptical the market is, the more likely it is to rise, and when enthusiasm returns, heavy selling may occur. Currently, a lot of money is waiting to test the bottom of the VNI, and technically, the VNI may retest its lows, but individual stocks may not. The strategy remains to hold stocks, and Long/Short derivatives positions flexibly.
VN30 closed today at 1271.44. Tomorrow’s resistances are 1275, 1285, 1290, 1297, and 1307. Supports are 1260, 1257, 1246, and 1239.
“Stock Market Blog” reflects the personal views of the author and does not represent the opinions of VnEconomy. The views, interpretations, and opinions expressed herein are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of VnEconomy and its subsidiaries. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for any issues arising from the opinions and views expressed in this article.
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