The Stealth Investors: Accumulating Quietly, Awaiting the Revised Land Valuation

"Now is the time to buy, as the savvy investor knows, for when the new land price adjustments are implemented and the market recovers, land prices will surge. This is the time to get in before the inevitable rebound."

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Ho Chi Minh City, particularly the southern market, has been abuzz with talk of adjusted land prices. While the old land price list is officially valid until the end of 2025, the city has repeatedly proposed implementing the new list earlier to coincide with the enforcement of new Laws.

Recently, the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Natural Resources and Environment submitted a report to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment on the roadmap for adjusting land prices in the city according to the 2024 Land Law. The adjustment roadmap consists of three phases.

Phase 1, from August 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, aims to align land prices with the city’s reality. The adjusted land price list will be carried out following the procedure stipulated in the Government’s Decree No. 71/2024 on land prices. District and Thu Duc City People’s Committees will collect and send land price data to the Department of Natural Resources and Environment.

Subsequently, consulting units will synthesize, analyze, and evaluate the appropriateness of the adjusted land prices with the city’s reality to build the adjusted land price list. The authority to adjust the land price list in this phase belongs to the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, as per the 2024 Land Law and the Government’s Decree No. 71/2024.

Phase 2, from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026. The Department of Natural Resources and Environment is currently carrying out procedures to submit to the competent authority for approval of the project to build a land price list to be applied from January 1, 2026, according to the 2024 Land Law. The authority to approve the land price list in this phase belongs to the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Council.

Phase 3 will start from January 1, 2027, onwards. Ho Chi Minh City will adjust, amend, and supplement the land price list to announce and apply it from January 1 of the following year, as stipulated in the 2024 Land Law.

Many investors expect that with the application of the new land price list, the value of their assets will increase. Hence, a group of investors with ready capital has quietly emerged in the market, scooping up properties while waiting for the issuance of the adjusted land price list.

According to a long-time real estate investor based in Thu Duc City, Ho Chi Minh City: “If you have the money to buy now and wait for the issuance of the adjusted land price list, the market will recover, and land prices will surge again.”

He also emphasized that experience shows that the real estate market is like a spring; after a long period of compression, there will be a “release” phase. However, this phase and the coming time remain a playground for those with “fresh money.” Investing in real estate with bank loans is quite risky at this point.

There are high expectations for a real estate market transformation with the new Laws and the new land price list. Nonetheless, the issues surrounding the adjusted land price list continue to attract diverse opinions.

Following the news of Ho Chi Minh City’s land price adjustment, with increases ranging from 5 to 50 times the current price, the city’s Department of Natural Resources and Environment recently held a press conference to address this issue, which has attracted much public attention.

Mr. Nguyen Toan Thang, Director of the Department of Natural Resources and Environment, stated that the upcoming 2024 Land Law stipulates that the current land price list issued by the provincial People’s Committee according to the old Law will remain valid until December 31, 2025. However, if necessary, the provincial People’s Committee can decide to adjust the land price list to match the local reality.

Nevertheless, the 2024 Land Law does not specify the adjustment coefficient for land prices to calculate financial obligations related to land (as stipulated in the current land price list). Therefore, it is necessary to develop a new land price list that aligns with the actual situation.

Accordingly, at the beginning of July 2024, the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee assigned the Department of Natural Resources and Environment to coordinate with relevant departments, sectors, and localities to draft the adjusted land price list.

Regarding the impact, Mr. Thang assessed that the new land price list would bring about several advantages. Both compensation prices and resettlement land prices will be based on this new list. Real estate transactions will become more transparent, eliminating the practice of “two prices” for buying and selling houses, and preventing state budget losses.

Addressing concerns that the new land price list will drive up real estate prices, Mr. Thang disagreed. Previously, real estate transaction prices were much higher than the state’s land prices. The adjusted land price list will be updated based on actual market transaction prices through tax agencies and land registration offices.

Mr. Thang also affirmed that implementing the new land price list would benefit all parties, from management agencies to enterprises and individuals. The new list comprehensively covers all subjects liable for financial obligations related to land. In cases of compensation, resettlement, or annual land lease payments, which previously required hiring consulting units for appraisal, now only the new land price list needs to be applied.

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