Landslide and Flash Flood Risk in Northern Mountainous Regions, Thanh Hoa and Nghe An at a Critical Level

According to Mr. Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Center, heavy rainfall, concentrated over a short period, poses a particular threat of flash floods and landslides in the mountainous and midland areas of the North, Thanh Hoa, and Nghe An provinces from the night of September 6 to September 8.

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According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, this morning, September 7th, the water level of the Hong-Thai Binh river system and the rivers in Thanh Hoa is slowly changing and is currently below alert level 1.

FLOOD WARNING FOR RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN REGION AND THANH HOA PROVINCE

During this flood, the peak levels on small rivers in the mountainous provinces, especially in Quang Ninh, Cao Bang, Lang Son, and Hoa Binh, are expected to reach levels 2 to 3; peak levels on the Thao, Lo, Cau, Thuong, and Luc Nam rivers are expected to reach levels 1 to 2. The Buoi and Ma rivers (in Thanh Hoa province) are expected to exceed level 1, while the lower Hong-Thai Binh river is expected to remain below level 1.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has assessed the risk of flooding at level 1. There is a high risk of flooding in low-lying areas near the rivers, flash floods, and landslides in the mountainous areas of the Northern Region and Thanh Hoa province.

There is a high risk of flooding in urban areas and provinces in the Northern Delta due to heavy rainfall, especially in the provinces of Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Lang Son, Thai Nguyen, Cao Bang, Ha Giang, Yen Bai, Bac Kan, Nam Dinh, Thai Binh, Ha Nam, and Hanoi.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting warns that flooding of rivers and streams will cause flooding in low-lying areas, affecting activities such as water transport, aquaculture, agriculture, and socio-economic activities.

LOCAL AUTHORITIES AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO STAY VIGILANT AND NOT BE COMPLACENT

According to the latest update from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 10:00 am on September 7th, the storm’s eye was located at approximately 20.5 degrees North Latitude and 107.8 degrees East Longitude, in the waters off Quang Ninh and Hai Phong provinces. The strongest winds were recorded at levels 13-14, with gusts up to level 17. In the next 3 hours, the storm is expected to move northwestward at a speed of about 20 km/h.

At 8:00 am this morning, Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha chaired a meeting at the General Department of Meteorology and Hydrology to discuss the forecasting and response to the 3rd storm. The meeting was connected with Bach Long Vy Hydro-Meteorological Station, Quang Ninh Hydro-Meteorological Station, and the Hydro-Meteorological Station of the Northern Delta and North-Central Region.

Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha inspects the storm forecasting work at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting – Photo: VGP/Minh Khoi

At the meeting, Mr. Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, reported to the Deputy Prime Minister on the impacts of strong winds, heavy rains, and the risks associated with the 3rd storm on the Northern provinces and coastal provinces.

Mr. Khiem stated that the Gulf of Tonkin (including Bach Long Vy and Co To island districts) is currently experiencing strong winds of levels 9-11, with levels reaching 12-14 near the storm’s eye and gusts of up to level 17. The sea is very rough, with waves reaching 3-5 meters, and up to 6-8 meters near the storm’s eye. The coastal area from Quang Ninh to Thanh Hoa is experiencing waves of 2-4 meters, with higher waves of up to 3-5 meters near the storm’s eye.

The coastal area from Quang Ninh to Thanh Hoa can expect strong winds of levels 6-7, increasing to levels 8-9, and up to levels 10-12 near the storm’s eye (in Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, and Thai Binh). The inland areas of the Northeast will experience strong winds of levels 6-8, with gusts of up to levels 9-11, starting from noon on September 7th until the evening (the strongest winds are expected between the morning and evening of September 7th).

The coastal area from Thanh Hoa to Quang Ninh should be prepared for storm surges of 0.5 meters (in Thanh Hoa) to 2 meters (in Quang Ninh) on the evening and night of September 7th. The coastal areas of Quang Ninh and Hai Phong should also be cautious of a potential water drop of about 0.5 meters in the morning and afternoon of September 7th.

From September 7th to the morning of September 8th, the provinces of Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Lang Son, Ha Giang, Phu Tho, Hoa Binh, the Northern Delta (including Hanoi), and Thanh Hoa will experience heavy to very heavy rainfall, with average amounts ranging from 150 to 350 mm, and even exceeding 500 mm in some areas. Other places in the Northeast can expect rainfall amounts of 100 to 150 mm.

There is a high risk of widespread flooding due to the inability of the water to drain quickly, especially in urban areas, densely populated areas, open-pit coal mines, and underground mines in the Quang Ninh area. Heavy rainfall may also trigger flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas of the Northern provinces and Thanh Hoa.

According to Mr. Khiem, heavy and concentrated rainfall in a short period poses a particular danger of flash floods and landslides in mountainous and midland areas of the North, Thanh Hoa, and Nghe An from the night of September 6th to September 8th.

Concluding the meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha stated that the forecasting of the scope, intensity, development, and direction of the 3rd storm has been accurate so far.

It is forecasted that the coastal area from Quang Ninh to Thanh Hoa will experience strong winds of levels 6-7, increasing to levels 8-9, and up to levels 10-12 near the storm’s eye. The inland areas of the Northeast will have strong winds of levels 6-8, with gusts of up to levels 9-11 (the strongest winds are expected between the morning and evening of September 7th). The critical period is expected to be from noon today until around 5:00 pm.

Therefore, the Deputy Prime Minister requested that local authorities remain vigilant and proactive in their response, ensuring the safety of people and property. There are concerns about the wide-ranging impact of the storm, which could bring heavy rainfall of up to 500 mm in the entire Northern region and coastal provinces from Quang Ninh to Nghe An. The combination of heavy rainfall and storm surges may lead to flooding, flash floods, landslides, and other challenges.

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