The Market Rebounds, Liquidity Plunges

U.S. stocks overcame a major jolt overnight, and as positive flood-related news emerged, investor sentiment turned positive this morning. However, optimism doesn't translate to aggressive buying – while the number of rising stocks is overwhelming, not many have surged significantly, and turnover has dipped to the lowest in 20 sessions.

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US stocks rebounded from a sharp drop overnight, and positive news about the storms gradually improved investor sentiment this morning. However, optimism does not mean aggressive “cash-in” – the number of rising stocks is overwhelming, but not many codes increased sharply, and liquidity fell to the lowest level in 20 sessions.

The VN-Index rose and fluctuated narrowly in the morning session. Except for the increase at the opening, the intra-day range was only about 4 points, and it closed up 4.83 points (+0.39%) compared to the reference. The main reason for the small market fluctuation is that selling pressure has decreased significantly since yesterday afternoon, and with the new positive factors, investors are even less willing to sell. However, money is too cautious, only a small amount of accept buying at high prices, so supply and demand are balanced in an unstable situation.

The total matched order value on the HoSE floor this morning reached nearly VND 4,392 billion, down 25% from yesterday morning. The VN30 basket even matched below VND 2,000 billion, down 20%. Including HNX, the matched order value of the two floors reached VND 4,723 billion, down 24%.

Low liquidity in this situation is mainly due to very slow bottom-fishing money. The VN-Index width at the end of the session was stable with 235 codes increasing/121 codes decreasing, but only about 60 codes increased by more than 1%, and the majority were codes with very low liquidity. On the downside, only 40 stocks fell by more than 1% with a total liquidity of less than VND 200 billion. Thus, the majority of stocks fall into the group of narrow fluctuations and low overall liquidity, meaning that no side wants to change the state of the order more decisively.

Currently, there are only 8 stocks on the HoSE floor that match more than VND 100 billion, of which NVL is the only one that is still being sold off, falling 3.38% with a liquidity of nearly VND 137 billion. The group with good increases included TPB up 1.4% matching VND 324.3 billion; DCM increased by 2.41% with VND 258 billion; CSV increased by 2.99% with VND 122.5 billion. In the group with lower liquidity, there are also many average stocks that are quite active such as DPM, DBD, BFC, SBT, BAF, BMP, HDG matching from VND 20 billion to VND 70 billion.

Although the VN30 basket had very low liquidity, it accounted for nearly 45% of the total HoSE floor transactions. This is a large market share compared to the average. This group also contributed mainly to keeping the VN-Index fluctuating narrowly on the upside. VN30-Index closed up 0.34% with 20 codes increasing/6 codes decreasing. The stock with the largest decrease was VIC, down only 0.58% compared to the reference.

The current stalemate is difficult to change without strong developments in pillar stocks or better money flow. Of the top 10 capitalizations of the VN-Index, only VCB increased by 0.9%, which was significant, while the rest were small. GVR increased by 2.05%, SAB increased by 1.08%, and TPB increased by 1.4% but are not codes that can lead the index. The money flow is clearly weak even though unfavorable information is decreasing in intensity. Investors still do not really trust the market’s ability to bottom out.