Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q3 2024 is estimated to have grown by 7.4% year-on-year. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 2.58%, contributing 4.08% to the overall increase in the economy’s total added value. Meanwhile, the industry and construction sector grew by 9.11%, contributing nearly 49%, and the services sector expanded by 7.51%, accounting for 47% of the total growth.
In terms of GDP usage in Q3 2024, final consumption increased by 7.02% year-on-year, contributing nearly 60% to the economy’s overall growth rate. Asset accumulation rose by 7.08%, contributing 39%. Exports of goods and services grew by 15.68%, while imports increased by 15.84%, with the trade balance contributing 1.19%.
For the first nine months of 2024, GDP is estimated to have expanded by 6.82% year-on-year. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 3.2%, contributing 5.37% to the total added value of the economy. The industry and construction sector grew by 8.19%, contributing 46.22%, while the services sector expanded by 6.95%, accounting for 48.41%.
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GDP growth rate for the first nine months compared to the same period in the previous years, 2011 – 2024 (%)
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam
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The agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector was significantly impacted by Typhoon No. 3 in September 2024, resulting in slower growth compared to the same period in previous years. The added value of this sector for the first nine months of 2024 increased by 3.20%, only higher than the growth rate in 2020 during the 2020-2024 period. Within this sector, the added value of agriculture grew by 2.92% year-on-year, contributing 0.25 percentage points to the overall increase in the economy’s total added value. Forestry increased by 4.96%, but due to its low weight, it only contributed 0.03 percentage points. The fisheries sector grew by 3.73%, contributing 0.1 percentage points.
In the industry and construction sector, many key industrial sectors recorded high growth compared to the same period last year. The added value of the entire industry for the first nine months of 2024 increased by 8.34% year-on-year, contributing 2.71 percentage points to the total added value of the economy. Among the industries, manufacturing was the main growth driver, expanding by 9.76% and contributing 2.44 percentage points. The construction sector grew by 7.48%, contributing 0.52 percentage points.
The trade, tourism, and transportation sectors maintained their growth momentum, positively contributing to the overall economic growth. The added value of the services sector for the first nine months of 2024 increased by 6.95% year-on-year. Several key service sectors with high weightage contributed to the total added value of the economy as follows: Wholesale and retail trade grew by 7.56% year-on-year, contributing 0.78 percentage points; transportation and warehousing increased by 11.03%, contributing 0.7 percentage points; financial, banking, and insurance activities expanded by 6.47%, contributing 0.38 percentage points; and accommodation and catering services grew by 9.48%, contributing 0.26 percentage points.
In terms of economic structure for the first nine months of 2024, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector accounted for 11.64%; the industry and construction sector made up 37.1%; the services sector contributed 42.8%; and taxes on products minus subsidies on products represented 8.46% (The corresponding structure for the same period in 2023 was 11.8%; 36.98%; 42.61%; and 8.61%).
Regarding GDP usage for the first nine months of 2024, final consumption increased by 6.18% compared to the same period in 2023, contributing 62.66% to the overall economic growth rate. Asset accumulation rose by 6.86%, contributing 36.68%. Exports of goods and services grew by 16.94%, while imports increased by 17.05%, with the trade balance contributing 0.66%.
The Post-Storm Economic Growth Forecast: Vietnam’s Resilience and Rebound
For Q3, UOB Singapore forecasts Vietnam’s economic growth to slow down to 5.7%, down from the previous projection of 6.0%. The bank predicts a growth rate of 5.2% for Q4, a decrease from the earlier estimate of 5.4%. As a result, UOB has lowered its annual growth projection for Vietnam to 5.9%, a 0.1% reduction from the previous forecast.
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