Today’s price action was interrupted by the patience of waiting capital, stifling any potential recovery. It was only when prices dropped significantly that larger waiting orders emerged. Liquidity remained very low after last weekend’s session, which could be seen as a positive sign, as those who wanted to cut losses the most have already exited.
The surprisingly positive macro data released over the weekend created some initial excitement, but the capital flow “disagreed.” The weak buying pressure quickly caused the upward momentum to wane. The market is currently in the hands of sellers rather than buyers. Price negotiations will continue to create many volatile sessions like today, with low liquidity until those holding capital become more aggressive.
Looking at intraday fluctuations, the market is creating a sense of frustration, as any upward movement is met with selling pressure pushing prices down. Only those holding stocks are frustrated; those holding cash are in a comfortable position. The market is still in the “margin-testing” phase and has not yet reached the stage of testing psychology. It will only transition to the bottom-building phase when stockholders become completely indifferent to prices.
Today’s session had two positive aspects. First was liquidity. In a downward trend, after distribution sessions and sharp declines with high liquidity, a slowdown in trading is a positive sign: it either indicates a reduction in selling pressure or a decrease in loose stock volume. Today’s matched trading volume on the two exchanges was only 11.5k billion, similar to mid-September sessions. The second positive aspect was the appearance of large buy orders at deep-discount prices towards the end of the afternoon session. Whenever prices dropped significantly, trading activity increased noticeably. Some stocks, particularly securities stocks, witnessed impressive reversals, suggesting a shift in the mindset of capital holders.
Trading on the exchange is always a probe into the thinking of each side, and liquidity, price range, and fluctuations are part of that outcome. Guesses can be right or wrong, but over many sessions, consistent signals increase the likelihood of accuracy. Therefore, market bottoming or topping processes always involve failed fluctuations and rarely end within 1-2 sessions.
Some stocks have corrected to the point where they can be bought. As the market is still unstable, the buying strategy should also be gradual. Stockholders are at a disadvantage, so patience will pay off. Buying on dips is easy, as it only involves covering previously sold stocks, so everyone has a chance without competition.
Today’s derivatives market continued to reflect expectations of the underlying market, with the F1 basis remaining positive throughout the day. However, this situation, coupled with low liquidity, could easily become a “delicacy” for shorts. Nonetheless, to increase volatility, the underlying must be pushed. In the morning, VN30’s decline below 1341.xx favored shorts, but it was not very effective as the underlying remained range-bound, and even late in the morning, failing to cut losses quickly resulted in a loss. The afternoon session was better; the second time VN30 dropped below 1341.xx, there was a synergistic push from the underlying, and although the basis did not contract, limiting short profits, the index’s volatility improved significantly. VN30 has two volatility expansion regions: 1341.xx to 1334.xx and 1327.xx. However, it is always advisable to maintain discipline and close half the position at the 1334.xx threshold to secure profits, with the remaining half aiming for additional gains or breaking even.
With today’s significant drop in liquidity, the volume of loose stocks appears to be decreasing. The market is likely to experience a few sessions of narrow fluctuations with persistently low liquidity or sessions of forced volatility to test supply. The strategy remains to focus on stock purchases and flexible long/short positions in derivatives.
VN30 closed today at 1335.48. Tomorrow’s nearest resistances are 1341, 1348, 1356, and 1365. Supports are 1333, 1325, 1318, and 1308.
“Blog chứng khoán” reflects the personal views of the author and does not represent the opinions of VnEconomy. The views, interpretations, and predictions are those of the individual investor, and VnEconomy respects the author’s perspective and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for any issues arising from the investment opinions and perspectives presented.
