Today’s price action was interrupted by the patience of waiting capital, stifling any potential recovery. It was only when prices dropped significantly that larger waiting orders emerged. Liquidity remained very low after last weekend’s session, which could be seen as a positive sign, as those who wanted to cut losses the most have already done so.
The surprisingly positive macroeconomic data released over the weekend created some initial excitement, but the capital flow “disagreed.” The weak buying pressure quickly caused the upward momentum to wane. The market is currently in the hands of sellers, not buyers. Price negotiations will continue to create many sessions of tug-of-war, as seen today, with low liquidity until those holding capital become more aggressive.
Looking at intraday fluctuations, the market is creating a sense of frustration, as any upward movement is met with selling pressure pushing prices down. Only those holding stocks are frustrated; those holding cash are quite comfortable. The market is still in the “margin-testing” phase and has not yet reached the stage of testing psychology. It’s only when stockholders give up and stop paying attention to prices that the market will enter the bottom-forming phase.
Today’s session had two positive aspects. First was liquidity. In a downward trend, after distribution sessions and sharp declines with high liquidity, a slowdown in trading is a good sign: it either indicates a reduction in selling pressure or a decrease in loose stock volume. Today’s matched trading volume on the two exchanges was only 11.5 trillion, similar to mid-September sessions. The second positive aspect was the large number of bottom-fishing orders placed at deep-discount prices towards the end of today’s session. Whenever prices dropped significantly, trading became more active. Some stocks, especially securities stocks, witnessed impressive reversals, indicating a shift in the mindset of capital holders.
Trading on the exchange is always a probe into the thinking of each side, and liquidity, range, and price fluctuations are part of that outcome. Guesses can be right or wrong, but over many sessions, consistent signals increase the likelihood of accuracy. Therefore, market bottoming or topping processes always involve failed fluctuations and rarely end within 1-2 sessions.
Some stocks have corrected to the point where they can be bought. As the market is still unstable, the buying strategy should also be gradual. Stockholders are at a disadvantage, so patience will pay off. Buying on dips is easy, as it’s just a matter of covering previously sold stocks, so everyone has a chance without needing to compete.
Today’s derivatives market continued to reflect expectations for the underlying market, as the F1 basis remained positive throughout the day. However, this situation, coupled with low liquidity, could easily become a “delicacy” for shorts. But to increase volatility, the large caps still need to be pushed down. In the morning, the VN30 drop below 1341.xx favored shorts, but it wasn’t very effective as the large caps remained stagnant, and those who didn’t cut losses quickly even incurred losses. The afternoon session was better; the second time VN30 dropped below 1341.xx, there was a synergistic push from the large caps. Although the basis didn’t narrow, limiting short profits, the index’s volatility improved significantly. VN30 has two ranges to expand volatility: 1341.xx to 1334.xx and 1327.xx. However, it’s always advisable to maintain discipline and close half the position at the 1334.xx threshold to secure profits, with the remaining half aiming for additional gains or breaking even.
With today’s significant drop in liquidity, the volume of loose stocks appears to be decreasing. The market is likely to experience a few sessions of narrow fluctuations with persistently low liquidity or sessions of forced volatility to test supply. The strategy remains the same: look for buying opportunities in stocks and flexibly apply long/short strategies in derivatives.
VN30 closed today at 1335.48. Tomorrow’s resistances are 1341, 1348, 1356, and 1365. Supports are 1333, 1325, 1318, and 1308.
“Blog chứng khoán” reflects the personal views of the author and does not represent the opinions of VnEconomy. The views, assessments, and investment advice are solely those of the author, and VnEconomy respects the author’s perspective and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for any issues arising from the published assessments and investment advice.
