KBSV Securities has recently provided an assessment of China’s outlook and its potential impact on Vietnam, highlighting the confirmed weakness of the Chinese economy with disappointing macroeconomic indicators.
CHINA’S GOVERNMENT STIMULUS PACKAGES ONLY HAVE SHORT-TERM PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECTS
China has seen a downward revision in its economic growth forecast by major financial institutions, a persistent slump in the real estate market, and the emergence of deflationary risks. These three factors indicate a clear downward trend in China’s economic growth.
Specifically, financial organizations such as Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs have unanimously lowered their GDP growth outlook for 2024, with the lowest prediction being 4.7%, falling short of the government’s 5% target.
According to newly released August data, prices of new and secondary real estate fell by 5.5% and 8.6%, respectively, year-over-year, marking the sharpest decline since 2015. The downward trend could worsen as month-over-month data also shows a steep decline. Although the Chinese government has introduced stimulus packages, including lowering policy rates and providing capital to cities to purchase unsold inventory, the disbursement and impact have been slow.
There is a mismatch between oversupply and weak demand in tertiary markets, while primary markets face their own challenges, making the local governments’ purchase of real estate even more difficult.
Deflationary pressure is building up. According to the NBS report, China’s CPI rose only 0.6% year-over-year in August, marking the third consecutive month of weaker-than-expected growth, while consumer prices remained almost unchanged for most goods and services. The PPI has also been falling since the end of 2022, with a 1.8% drop in August, the steepest decline in four months.
Concerns about a deflationary spiral are well-founded as domestic consumers are increasingly limiting their spending on non-essential items. Meanwhile, falling real estate prices and overproduction in China are likely to put downward pressure on commodity prices and domestic consumption.
The Chinese government has swiftly introduced a series of stimulus policies, ranging from interest rate cuts to support for the capital, real estate, and stock markets, as macroeconomic data signals deterioration. Such sweeping changes in government policies and PBOC actions are unprecedented. Only on rare occasions in the past has the PBOC cut policy rates and the RRR within the same month, with 2008 being an example.
This highlights the urgency in addressing deflationary risks and achieving the 5% growth target.
While the policies aim to ease pressure on various aspects of the economy, KBSV believes that the risks causing China’s current stagnation are more structural, and the government’s stimulus packages are only creating short-term positive psychological effects on the market.
Meanwhile, questions remain about the clear impact of these measures. The cut in policy rates may not significantly alter the situation. A 0.5% reduction in mortgage rates could help approximately 50 million households reduce their annual interest payments by about CNY 150 billion, equivalent to a 0.1% increase in GDP. However, actual consumption and borrowing patterns pose significant challenges to the effectiveness of this policy due to an aging population, rising unemployment in large cities, slowing wage growth, and a bleak real estate market, all of which lead to restricted consumer spending.
Public spending is lagging behind the planned schedule. In contrast to the aggressive monetary policy, public investment is progressing slower than the budget plan, mainly due to implementation issues at the local government level. The support packages providing capital to cities to purchase unsold inventory for conversion into social housing are also facing disbursement problems.
KBSV attributes this to the imbalance between risk and yield after converting these assets, coupled with high local government debt, which delays the purchase of unsold inventory, especially in tertiary markets.
SEVERAL VIETNAMESE INDUSTRIES ARE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED
According to KBSV, the Chinese government’s economic stimulus packages will have positive short-term effects, partially improving consumer sentiment and supporting the real estate market. However, the medium-term decline in China’s economic growth is irreversible due to the structural issues faced by the world’s second-largest economy.
This remains a notable risk factor for the Vietnamese stock market due to the high level of interconnection between the two economies.
The industries most vulnerable to these risks include aviation and services: Chinese tourists have consistently accounted for a significant proportion of international visitors to Vietnam and are among the highest spenders. A decline in China’s growth will affect the income of its citizens, leading to reduced discretionary spending, which will, in turn, result in a significant drop in the number of Chinese tourists visiting Vietnam.
Export goods: As China is the second-largest consumer of Vietnamese goods globally (after the US), a weak Chinese economy will reduce the demand for Vietnamese products such as agricultural, aquatic, rubber, and wood products.
Building materials: The surplus capacity and high inventory levels due to the frozen real estate market will result in Chinese building materials flooding the market at low prices. This, coupled with the tendency of major economies like the US and Europe to impose import taxes, creates intense competition for domestic building materials companies.
