The buyers’ risk appetite has significantly increased, immediately changing the way orders are placed and the selected price range. Today’s market still had many swinging sessions, but they all remained in the green zone and became more enthusiastic towards the end.
After a session of touching the bottom with a “pullback candle” and a session of tug-of-war balance, the market started to accelerate upwards. The most obvious change was from passively waiting for prices to actively blocking around reference prices, and today is about pushing prices up. This change is essentially a shift in the perception of risk: when afraid of a further decline, one either doesn’t buy or waits for very low prices, and it’s okay if there is no match. When less afraid, buy on dips during the session. When no longer afraid of missing out on low prices, buy by matching straight, and finally, for fear of losing out, switch to competitive pricing.
Today’s liquidity was quite good, with a total matched order volume of about 16.9k billion VND on the two exchanges, showing an increasing trend. The new information is that the Vietnamese market has not been considered for a change in ranking, which is theoretically not positive, but the way the market responded shows that the information itself is not inherently good or bad. When the sentiment is enthusiastic, supply and demand become the deciding factors.
The VN30 blue-chip group today led the strong rally, and the representative index of this basket also performed the best. In recent sessions, money has been flowing into this group, with a high weight of over 50% on the HSX floor. In fact, if we look at the index, the VNI failed to break through the 1300 peak at the end of September and early October, but the VN30 has broken through, and the recent dip was just a retest of the old resistance zone. The wave on the VN30 is much clearer, both in terms of momentum and liquidity.
Today’s market also widely circulated forecasts of Q3/2024 financial results. In fact, this information is old news, but the interesting thing is that when sentiment needs to find a foothold, whether it’s old or new doesn’t matter, but whether it meets the need. Everyone starts talking about how this stock will increase profits well, and that stock will surge, which no one cared about yesterday or earlier this week. Such psychological developments always repeat themselves and remain effective.
There is now a growing acceptance of chasing higher prices, so the opportunity to buy on dips is diminishing. This is not necessarily a disadvantage because the purchases made during the decline already have a low cost base. There will always be intraday fluctuations even when the market is enthusiastic. Consensus has not yet been fully reached.
Today, the futures market continued to maintain a wide basis difference. In the last 2.5 sessions, this signal has shown that expectations are in line with the underlying market. Although a wide positive basis is a disadvantage for Long, when the market has strengthened, there is no other way, and Short is even riskier. In fact, even during intraday dips, F1 adjusted very little.
The threshold of 1341.xx of VN30 provided strong support for the index, serving as a good entry point for Long positions with a stop loss when VN30 falls below this level. VN30 broke above 1348.xx but failed to reach 1356.xx, while the basis widened even further, which is very advantageous.
Today’s strong rally is a signal of greater consensus from the sell-off signals and a change in the buying side’s willingness to enter orders. The market has established a short-term bottom for this correction phase, which is also just a normal adjustment. The strategy remains to look for buying opportunities, Long/Short flexibility with derivatives, and a preference for Long.
VN30 closed today at 1351.97. Tomorrow’s nearest resistance levels are 1357; 1367; 1376; 1380; 1388; 1397. Support levels are 1348; 1341; 1333; 1325.
“Blog chứng khoán” is a personal blog and does not represent the views of VnEconomy. The opinions and assessments expressed are those of the individual investor, and VnEconomy respects the author’s point of view and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for any issues arising from the published investment opinions and perspectives.
