An impressive reversal took place during the futures expiration session. It’s unclear if this was a pull-up effect, but the recovery was widespread, well-led, and supported by strong buying pressure.
According to regulations, the final settlement price is calculated from the last 15 minutes of the continuous matching period and the ATC session. However, the market recovered in the early afternoon, just a few minutes after the opening. The rally was persistent, successful until the end, and supported by breadth. Even if there was a pull-up effect, such effectiveness is very positive, indicating that open trading has returned.
The order placement style and size always reflect the risk appetite the best. The aggressive buying style witnessed this afternoon demonstrates a high level of proactiveness. The broad market participation also indicates a similar investment perspective, although individual stocks may experience varying recovery speeds.
The afternoon session witnessed improved liquidity, confirming the alignment of liquidity, range, and price direction. This is the true essence of “wick-pulling candles.”
Before today’s reversal, the market went through a narrow-range session with minimal liquidity (12.5k billion matched orders), and this morning’s liquidity was the lowest in eight sessions. The only difference was the slightly wider downward range this morning; a narrower range would have resulted in a stronger signal. Nonetheless, the outcome was still positive. It appears that money flow in recent days has been waiting for the October expiration to pass before taking action.
Technically, today’s reversal session is a positive sign, maintaining the upward trend of the VNI since August. If the market continues to rise on the last trading day of the week, there is a high probability that the index will form another higher low. Such a technical pattern will attract attention, and as long as the downward trend becomes shorter in time, narrower in range, and closer to the resistance level, the chances of breaking through the resistance increase.
However, it’s worth noting that the index has its own story, and a breakthrough would be ideal as it would create broad consensus and change the mindset of conservative investors. Opportunities still lie in specific stocks, and even in the best-case scenario, the chances are not equal. Therefore, it’s crucial to prioritize your portfolio. Stocks with minor adjustments during the recent correction, falling within their typical fluctuation range, are strong. Those forming bottom zones are also worth considering. It only takes a few more upward sessions for the lethargic, discouraged, and pessimistic psychology of the past few days to evaporate!
Today is the futures expiration day, and F2 maintained an excessively wide basis (averaging nearly 8 points). The F2 term is still very long, so short positions may not benefit from basis elasticity. F1, on the other hand, doesn’t need to consider the basis, making it easier to set stop losses.
The initial sliding pace didn’t offer a standard setup as VN30 mainly fluctuated below 1359.xx, quite far from the initial level, and the pace was slow. A better opportunity presented itself when VN30 broke through 1353.xx. If this level is breached, the next support levels are 1348.xx and 1341.xx, and the stop loss for short positions can be set according to VN30 when it rebounds above 1348.xx. At the beginning of the afternoon session, VN30 broke through 1348.xx, and the basis turned positive, after which the index rebounded above 1348.xx. That was the standard position closure point. The subsequent rebound again created a good setup for long positions, with a stop loss set according to VN30 if it falls back below 1348.xx. The target for closing half the position was VN30 reaching 1353.xx, and the rest performed well up to 1359.xx.
Today’s F2 development shows considerable expectations for the underlying market, even when VNI and VN30 plummeted in the morning. The inflow of money pushing up prices had a positive effect, changing the pessimistic psychology of the past few days. The opportunity for the indexes to retest the peak zones remains. The strategy is to be flexible with long/short positions, prioritizing long and considering the basis.
VN30 closed today at 1362.89. The nearest resistance levels for tomorrow are 1368; 1376; 1380; 1387; 1396; 1401. Support levels are 1358; 1348; 1341; 1333.
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