An impressive turnaround materialized during the futures expiration session. It’s unclear whether this was a pull-up effect, but the recovery was widespread, well-led, and supported by strong capital inflows.
According to regulations, the final settlement price is calculated from the last 15 minutes of the continuous matching period and the ATC session. However, the market recovered in the early afternoon, right after the opening minutes. The rally was persistent, successful until the end, and supported by breadth. Even if there was a pull-up effect, such effectiveness is highly positive, indicating that open trading has returned.
The order placement style and size always reflect the risk appetite the most authentically. The aggressive buying style witnessed this afternoon demonstrates a high level of proactiveness. The broad market participation also indicates a similar mindset, even though individual stocks recovered at varying speeds. The improved liquidity in the afternoon also suggests a good fit between liquidity, range, and price direction. That’s the real meaning of “wick-pulling candles.”
Before today’s reversal, the market went through a narrow-range session with minimal liquidity (12.5 trillion VND in matched orders), and this morning’s liquidity was the lowest in eight sessions. The only issue this morning was that stocks had a slightly wider downward range; if it had been narrower, the signal would have been stronger. Nonetheless, the outcome was still positive. It seems that capital has been waiting for the October expiration to pass before taking action.
Technically, today’s reversal session is a positive sign, maintaining the uptrend in the VNI since August. If the market continues to rise on the last trading day of the week, there is a high probability that the index will form another higher low. Such a technical pattern will attract attention, and as long as the downward momentum becomes shorter in duration, smaller in range, and closer to the resistance level, the chances of breaking through the resistance increase.
However, it’s important to note that the index has its own story, and a breakthrough would be ideal as it would create broad consensus and change the mindset of conservative investors. Opportunities still lie in specific stocks, and even in a favorable scenario, the chances are not equal. Therefore, focus on your portfolio first. Stocks that have undergone minor adjustments within their typical fluctuation range are strong. Those forming bottom zones are also worth considering. It only takes a few more sessions for the lethargic, discouraged, and pessimistic psychology of the past few days to evaporate!
Today is the futures expiration day, and F2 maintained an excessively wide basis (averaging nearly 8 points). The F2 term is still very long, so Short may not benefit from basis elasticity. F1 definitely doesn’t need to consider the basis, so it’s easier to set a stop loss.
The initial sliding pace didn’t offer a standard setup when VN30 mainly fluctuated below 1359.xx, quite far away, and at a slow pace. A better opportunity presented itself when VN30 penetrated 1353.xx, and if this level was breached, the next thresholds would be 1348.xx and 1341.xx. For Short, the stop loss could be set according to VN30 when it rebounded above 1348.xx. At the beginning of the afternoon, VN30 penetrated 1348.xx, and the basis turned positive, after which the index circled back above 1348.xx. That was the standard position closure point. The subsequent rebound again created a good setup for Long, with a stop loss according to VN30 if the index fell back below 1348.xx. The target for closing half the position was VN30 reaching 1353.xx. The remaining portion rose beautifully to 1359.xx.
Today’s F2 development indicates considerable expectations for the underlying market, even when VNI and VN30 plummeted in the morning. The inflow of capital to push prices up had a positive effect, altering the psychology of discouragement over the past few days. The opportunity for the indexes to retest the peak zones remains. The strategy is to be flexible with Long/Short, prioritizing Long, and paying attention to the basis.
VN30 closed today at 1362.89. Tomorrow’s nearest resistance levels are 1368, 1376, 1380, 1387, 1396, and 1401. Supports are at 1358, 1348, 1341, and 1333.
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