“Will Southern Land Prices Soar Following the Crackdown on Land Subdivision?”

According to industry experts, the ban on land subdivision and plot sales is a sensible move, contributing to the sustainable development strategy of Ho Chi Minh City’s real estate market. This move will also result in a gradual reduction of land plot products in the future, giving an advantage to secondary land plots remaining in existing projects.

Recently, Ho Chi Minh City’s People’s Committee issued Decision 83, which regulates the determination of areas where real estate project investors and those constructing housing are allowed to transfer land-use rights with technical infrastructure to organizations and individuals for self-construction. Along with this, Decision 100, which stipulates conditions for land division and consolidation and the minimum area for land division, has attracted attention.

Decision 83 prohibits companies from subdividing land and then transferring it to individuals for self-construction without first constructing buildings. In contrast, Decision 100 provides more flexibility for individuals wishing to subdivide land. These decisions are expected to lead to a rapid increase in land plot prices in the southern part of the city.

Mr. Tran Khanh Quang, an experienced real estate investor, shared that real estate remains a preferred investment channel over gold, stocks, and foreign currency. Land plots, in particular, are the most accessible form of real estate investment. With high demand, limited supply, and increasing costs, land prices are projected to continue rising. The ban on land subdivision sales will likely result in a 2-5% increase in land product prices in Ho Chi Minh City in the coming months. Mr. Quang predicts a 20-30% increase in land prices over the next six months, potentially reaching 30-50% in the following year. This upward trend will also push up the prices of shophouses and apartments.

With the early application of the 2024 Land Law, a 4-35 times adjustment in land prices in Ho Chi Minh City, and measures to prevent land speculation, costs will rise, and supply in the market will decrease.

At a recent event introducing a book on real estate by author Le Quoc Kien, Mr. Nguyen Thai Hoa, a veteran real estate investor in Ho Chi Minh City, emphasized that the real estate market, particularly the land segment, is facing a significant wave of change due to the new land law and the recently issued land price framework. Land prices in Ho Chi Minh City have already increased by 4-35 times for residential land across the city.

However, according to Mr. Hoa, this is not the peak yet, as from January 1, 2026, land prices will continue to rise nationwide. This will lead to significant fluctuations in the residential land plot segment.

Mr. Hoa noted that in Thu Duc City (formerly District 9), there has been active trading, with prices increasing by 10-20% compared to 2023, depending on the area. The good liquidity and price appreciation indicate the market’s short-term potential. In the long term, as the effects of the new law continue to unfold, there is still much promise for growth.

The areas most affected by these changes are the outskirts of the city, while the center remains relatively stable. With Decision 83 requiring developers not to sell land plots without completing construction first and the new processes mandating the fulfillment of financial obligations, the prices of these products are expected to increase significantly. Given the construction costs and the new regulations and taxes, products ranging from apartments to land plots and shophouses developed by major investors must increase in price to avoid losses. Therefore, land plots in older projects from 2-3 years ago will have a price advantage in the future.