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According to DKRA, there will be approximately 6,500 new launches in 2025, including 3,000 condotel units, 1,500 villas, and nearly 2,000 commercial townhouses. This number is almost three times higher than in 2024 but remains a fraction of the volume during the peak period of 2018–2019.
The Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association (Vars) also anticipates an 80% year-over-year increase in the supply of vacation homes in 2025, equivalent to nearly 8,000 units, mainly in the form of serviced apartments. The completion of legal frameworks, the announcement of master plans, accelerated infrastructure development, and the allure of the tourism industry are all factors supporting the increase in supply entering the market.
However, experts believe that 2025 will only be a year of slight improvement for the vacation home market, and a breakthrough is not expected just yet. Legal obstacles have been addressed but not entirely resolved, according to Vo Hong Thang, Deputy General Director of DKRA. Most investors in this asset class are still waiting for market signals following the implementation of the new legal framework. As a result, liquidity is unlikely to see a significant boost, despite improved supply.
Additionally, the tourism and hospitality segment faces significant challenges due to the new land price framework, which is now based on market prices. Specifically, higher land prices will lead to increased land rental costs for vacation homes, which are considered commercial service land with limited ownership rights. For projects requiring lease extensions, the financial burden of these costs is a significant unknown, impacting both developers and investors. If not carefully calculated, vacation homes can easily become a liability, creating a cautious sentiment toward this asset class.
According to Luu Quang Tien, it will take a few more years for the vacation home market to thrive. The segment’s primary obstacles are investment efficiency and oversupply. After years of rapid growth, vacation home prices and supply have reached high levels, but commercial exploitation has not met expectations. Furthermore, disputes between developers and buyers in previous projects have created a cautious sentiment toward investing in vacation homes.
“With limited improvements in the supply of vacation homes and weak investment sentiment, 2025 will be a less challenging year, but it won’t be a complete turnaround,” said Tien.
Currently, two critical factors that can determine the trajectory of the vacation home market are liquidity and trust. During the peak years of 2015–2019, the market saw the launch of thousands of villas, townhouses, and condotels annually, but the quality of exploitation was low, and absorption lagged. The heavy reliance on international tourists also impacted the rental income and business operations of vacation home projects.
Profit guarantees offered by developers were once a compelling attraction for buyers but have now become a weakness, leading to several collapses when developers failed to fulfill their commitments. If the profitability puzzle remains unsolved, the vacation home market will continue to struggle.
According to Pham Thi Mien, Head of Research at Vars, demand will improve in key markets with well-developed infrastructure and a stable international visitor base. However, for the overall market, vacation homes are not expected to make a breakthrough. Some areas still have an oversupply of high-end vacation homes that are not yet operational due to incomplete infrastructure and amenities. It will take a few more years for this market to regain the vibrancy seen in 2018.
Overall, experts believe that serviced apartments (condotels) will show positive signs, but only for projects with granted ownership certificates. On the other hand, villas and commercial townhouses will cater to a more selective demand, focusing on key tourism destinations with price ranges of up to VND 10 billion.
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