I. MARKET ANALYSIS OF THE STOCK MARKET BASED ON DATA FROM FEBRUARY 3rd, 2025
– The main indices showed mixed performance during the first trading session of the Year of the Snake. The VN-Index closed 0.95% lower at 1,253.03 points, while the HNX-Index increased by 0.21% to reach 223.49 points.
– Trading volume on the HOSE exceeded 505 million units, a 2% increase compared to the previous session. On the HNX exchange, trading volume rose by 16.4% to nearly 43 million units.
– Foreign investors net sold on the HOSE with a value of nearly VND 1,509 billion and net bought on the HNX with a value of nearly VND 11 billion.
Trading value of foreign investors on HOSE, HNX and UPCOM. Unit: VND billion
Net trading value by stock code. Unit: VND billion
– Vietnamese securities market started the new year with a bearish session amid a global financial market turmoil due to new US trade policies. Strong selling pressure on large-cap stocks appeared from the beginning of the session, pushing the VN-Index down by 10 points within just 15 minutes of trading. Despite improved liquidity compared to the pre-Tet period, buying demand was overwhelmed by intense selling pressure, especially with large net selling by foreign investors. At the close on February 3rd, the VN-Index decreased by 12.02 points (-0.95%) to 1,253.03 points.
– In terms of impact, FPT was the most notable stock, taking away 2.7 points from the overall index, leading the negative impact. This was followed by VCB and BID, which also caused the VN-Index to lose more than 2 points. On the other hand, GVR, HVN, and BSR tried to support the index but only managed to lift it by just over 1 point.
– Large-cap stocks were the main factor behind today’s sharp decline, with the VN30-Index falling more than 22 points from the previous session to 1,315.46 points. The market breadth was heavily skewed towards decliners, with 25 losing stocks, 4 gaining stocks, and 1 stock closing unchanged. Among them, FPT plunged by more than 5%, followed by VNM, VIB, VPB, and LPB, which also corrected more than 2%. Conversely, GVR, SHB, and BCM attracted significant buying interest, being the few bright spots in the VN30 group with gains of over 1%.
Most industry groups were dominated by red hues. Information technology and telecommunications were the two sectors that witnessed the sharpest declines, losing 4.72% and 3.62%, respectively, in the first trading session of the year. This was mainly due to selling pressure in FPT (-5.15%), CMG (-4.88%); VGI (-2.64%), FOX (-8.64%), and CTR (-5.02%).
The financial group also exerted considerable pressure on the overall market due to its large capitalization, with many “blue-chip” stocks representative of the sector falling by more than 1%, including VCB, BID, TCB, VPB, MBB, LPB, HDB, STB, VIB, TPB, and OCB. A few stocks that went against the negative trend were SHB (+1.46%), BVB (+8%), NVB (+1.12%), and ABB (+2.82%).
On the other hand, the energy, industrials, discretionary consumer goods, and materials sectors managed to stay in positive territory. Notable gainers included BSR (+1.97%), HAH (+3.42%), VCG (+2.03%), HHV (+2.04%), HVN (+2.79%), BCG (+2.58%), GEX (+3.96%), GEE (+6.92%), GVR (+1.56%), NKG (+2.26%), and DCM (+1.34%), among others.
The VN-Index paused its upward momentum with a sharp decline, breaking below the SMA 200-day moving average. If, in the coming sessions, the index falls below the Middle line of the Bollinger Bands, the situation will become even more negative. However, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator is still maintaining a buy signal, and MACD is also giving a similar signal, even with the potential to cross above the zero threshold. If this happens, the risk of a short-term correction will be reduced.
II. TREND AND PRICE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS
VN-Index – MACD Indicator Likely to Cross Above Zero
The VN-Index paused its upward momentum with a sharp decline, breaking below the SMA 200-day moving average. If, in the coming sessions, the index falls below the Middle line of the Bollinger Bands, the situation could turn more negative.
However, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator remains in buy territory, and the MACD indicator is also giving a similar signal. There is even a possibility that MACD will cross above the zero threshold, which would reduce the risk of a short-term correction.
HNX-Index – Sustaining Above the Middle Line of Bollinger Bands
The HNX-Index continued its upward trajectory since crossing above the Middle line of the Bollinger Bands. Moreover, trading volume surpassed the 20-day average, indicating a return of liquidity to the market.
Currently, both the Stochastic Oscillator and MACD indicators are maintaining buy signals. If this status quo persists, the short-term optimistic outlook is likely to continue.
Money Flow Analysis
Movement of Smart Money: The Negative Volume Index indicator of the VN-Index crossed above the EMA 20-day moving average. If this trend continues in the next session, the risk of a sudden downturn (thrust down) will be mitigated.
Foreign Capital Flow: Foreign investors resumed net selling in the trading session on February 3rd, 2025. If foreign investors maintain this stance in the coming sessions, the situation could become more pessimistic.
III. MARKET STATISTICS FOR FEBRUARY 3rd, 2025
Analysis and Strategy Department, Vietstock Consulting
– 17:22 02/03/2025
Market Beat: VN-Index Surges Over 6 Points in Late Recovery
The market was volatile during the afternoon session, with the VN-Index dipping into negative territory at one point. At the close of trading on January 16th, all three major indices managed to recover, but the gains were narrower compared to the morning’s enthusiasm.
The Market Beat: Foreigners Buy for Two Straight Sessions, VN-Index Responds Positively
The market ended the session on a positive note, with the VN-Index climbing 5.42 points (+0.43%) to reach 1,265.05, while the HNX-Index gained 0.34 points (+0.15%), closing at 223.01. The market breadth tilted in favor of advancers, with 432 tickers in the green and 301 in the red. The large-cap sector mirrored the broader market’s sentiment, as evidenced by the VN30 basket, which saw 20 constituents advance, 5 decline, and 5 remain unchanged, resulting in a sea of green.
The Ultimate Headline:
“Vietstock Daily: Halting the Uptrend”
The VN-Index stalled its upward trajectory with a sharp decline, dipping below the 200-day SMA. If, in the upcoming sessions, the index falls below the Middle Band of the Bollinger Bands, the situation could turn more negative. However, the Stochastic Oscillator remains in bullish territory, and the MACD is echoing a similar signal, even hinting at a potential rise above the zero threshold. Should this transpire, the risks of a short-term correction would be mitigated.
The Power of Positive Thinking
The VN-Index surged after a period of consolidation around the 200-day SMA. Accompanied by a solid trading volume above the 20-day average, this indicates a positive shift in market sentiment. The Stochastic Oscillator and MACD are both generating buy signals, with the latter crossing above zero, suggesting a further boost to the already optimistic short-term outlook.
The Ultimate Trader’s Journal: Aiming for the December 2024 Peak
The VN-Index extended its upward momentum from the previous session, with trading volume surpassing the 20-day average. A more robust participation of funds in the upcoming sessions could propel the index towards its old peak of December 2024 (1,270-1,280 points). The Stochastic Oscillator and MACD indicators remain bullish, suggesting continued optimism in the short term.
