STOCK MARKET REVIEW FOR WEEK 03-07/02/2025
During the week of 03-07/02/2025, the VN-Index continued its upward trajectory with three consecutive weeks of gains since rising above the 20-week SMA. Additionally, trading volume surpassed the 20-week average since mid-November 2024, indicating a positive shift in market participation.
At present, the MACD indicator has just generated a buy signal by crossing above the Signal Line. If this condition persists in the coming period, the short-term outlook remains optimistic.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Trend and Price Oscillation Analysis
VN-Index – Testing December 2024 Highs
On 07/02/2025, the VN-Index witnessed a slight increase and formed a candlestick pattern resembling a Spinning Top, reflecting investors’ indecisiveness.
Furthermore, the index is retesting the December 2024 highs (around 1,270-1,285 points) while the Stochastic Oscillator has ventured deep into overbought territory. Should a sell signal emerge, and the oscillator retreats from this region in upcoming sessions, the downside risks will heighten.
HNX-Index – Extending its Winning Streak to Seven Consecutive Sessions
During the trading session on 07/02/2025, the HNX-Index climbed higher, marking its seventh straight day of gains, accompanied by trading volume surpassing the 20-day average. This reflects the prevailing optimism among investors.
Moreover, the HNX-Index extended its uptrend after successfully breaking above the long-term downward trend line, while the MACD indicator maintained its upward trajectory, providing a buy signal. This further bolsters the ongoing recovery.
Money Flow Analysis
Smart Money Flow Variation: The Negative Volume Index of the VN-Index crossed above the 20-day EMA. If this condition is sustained in the next session, the risks of a sudden downturn (thrust down) will diminish.
Foreign Money Flow Variation: Foreign investors continued net selling on 07/02/2025. If this sentiment persists in the upcoming sessions, the outlook will become less favorable.
Vietstock Consulting Analysis Team
– 16:58 09/02/2025
The Ultimate Headline: VN-Index: Navigating the Crucial Test Ahead
The VN-Index surged, closely hugging the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, reflecting a highly optimistic investor sentiment. The index has surpassed its previous peak of 1270-1285 points from December 2024 and is now approaching the crucial resistance level of 1300 points. A breakthrough above this level would further enhance the positive outlook. However, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator is venturing deep into overbought territory. Investors are advised to exercise caution in the coming period, as a potential sell signal from the indicator could trigger a shift in market dynamics.
Market Beat: VN-Index Plunges, Steel Stocks Take a Hit on News of Tariffs
The market closed with notable losses, as the VN-Index dipped by 11.94 points (-0.94%) to close at 1,263.26, while the HNX-Index fell by 1.52 points (-0.66%), settling at 227.97. The market breadth was overwhelmingly bearish, with 489 declining stocks outweighing 270 advancing stocks. Within the large-cap VN30 basket, bears held the edge, as evidenced by 16 tickers in the red versus 9 in the green, while 5 remained unchanged.
The Cash Flow Comeback Before the Holiday Break
The VN-Index soared by over 17 points, surging past the 200-day SMA. This rally was accompanied by a spike in trading volume above the 20-day average, indicating a resurgence of active participation by investors. The Stochastic Oscillator and MACD both flashed bullish signals, with the latter crossing above the Signal Line. If this momentum persists, the outlook for the market is exceedingly positive.
The Vietstock Daily: A Tentative Rise?
The VN-Index’s consecutive gains, coupled with below-average trading volumes, reflect investors’ cautious sentiment. This dynamic needs to change in upcoming sessions to sustain the upward trajectory. Notably, the Stochastic Oscillator has signaled a buy in the oversold region. If this buying signal persists and the index moves out of this region, the short-term outlook will turn even more positive.
The Ultimate Headline:
“Vietstock Daily: Halting the Uptrend”
The VN-Index stalled its upward trajectory with a sharp decline, dipping below the 200-day SMA. If, in upcoming sessions, the index falls below the Middle Band of the Bollinger Bands, the outlook turns decidedly bearish. However, the Stochastic Oscillator remains in bullish territory, and the MACD mirrors this sentiment, even hinting at a potential rise above the zero threshold. Should this materialize, it would alleviate the short-term downside risk.
