Container trucks operate at Gemalink International Port in Phu My town, Ba Ria-Vung Tau province. (Photo: Hong Dat/VNA)
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According to the financial daily The Business Times, DHL, a German logistics company providing international freight forwarding and logistics solutions, forecasts that Vietnam could break into the group of 30 fastest-growing economies in the world by 2030.
DHL’s latest report suggests that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will witness a boom in trade, with Vietnam expected to be among the fastest-growing countries globally by the end of this decade.
Additionally, the report indicates that US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are unlikely to reverse the growth trend of global trade.
According to DHL’s predictions, Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, will be among the top 30 trading nations worldwide, both in terms of rate and volume.
Specifically, Vietnam is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% in trade volume during 2024-2029, surpassing the 6.2% rate recorded in 2019-2024.
DHL’s report also estimates that global trade will attain a CAGR of 3.1% in the period of 2024-2029, while ASEAN’s trade is expected to reach a CAGR of approximately 5%, ranking third globally, after South and Central Asia (5.6%) and Sub-Saharan Africa (5.3%).
One of the driving forces behind the growth of global trade is the “China+1” trend, where businesses reduce their reliance on China by diversifying production to other locations.
Vietnam has significantly benefited from this shift, becoming a preferred destination for electronics manufacturers.
Apart from Vietnam, Indonesia is also anticipated to strengthen its position in the metals and chemicals industries, while the Philippines is expected to experience a trade boom, with growth rates climbing from 0.5% in 2019-2024 to 7.4% in 2024-2029.
Notably, DHL’s report dismisses concerns about the prospects of global trade related to Trump’s tariff policies, arguing that disruptions in supply chains due to geopolitical tensions have heightened interest in “nearshoring.”
According to DHL, there has been a shift in supply chains towards Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, which has become a crucial manufacturing hub for European and North American businesses.
DHL’s latest forecast, while not surprising compared to previous predictions, further reinforces the confidence in Vietnam’s potential and growth prospects.
Many experts believe that with Vietnam already among the top 40 largest economies in the world and the top 20 in international trade, breaking into the top 30 fastest-growing trading economies is well within reach.
Tho Anh
– 13:59 18/03/2025
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