The Cautious Investor: Navigating Market Uncertainty

21 March, 2025

I. MARKET ANALYSIS OF SECURITIES ON MARCH 18, 2025

– The main indices were mixed on March 18. The VN-Index closed down 0.4% to 1,330.97; HNX-Index edged up 0.11% from the previous session to 247.03.

– Matching volume on HOSE exceeded 810 million units, down 3.3% from the previous session. Matching volume on HNX continued to decrease by 15.4%, reaching nearly 48 million units.

– Foreigners net sold again on HOSE with a value of more than VND 435 billion and net sold more than VND 26 billion on HNX.

Trading value of foreign investors on HOSE, HNX and UPCOM by day. Unit: VND billion

Net trading value by stock code. Unit: VND billion

– The market corrected in the March 18 session. Although it opened quite positively with more than 5 points increase after nearly half an hour of trading, the buying force weakened quickly, causing the VN-Index to gradually return to the starting point by the end of the morning session. Selling pressure spread to large-cap stocks, causing the index to continue to slide in the afternoon session without any significant recovery efforts. The VN-Index lost more than 5 points at the end of the day, closing at the 1,330.97 level.

– In terms of impact, the top 10 negative-impact stocks caused the VN-Index to decrease by nearly 6 points, led by CTG, VPB, and VIC. Meanwhile, bright spots such as GAS, LPB, POW, and BSR helped the overall index recoup more than 2 points, but it was not enough to turn the tide as the remaining stocks did not contribute significantly.

– VN30-Index lost more than 6 points, closing at the 1,388.64 mark. Sellers regained the upper hand with 21 declining stocks, 7 rising stocks, and 2 stagnant stocks. A series of stocks fell by more than 1%, including VPB, MBB, VIC, CTG, VRE, MSN, and STB. In contrast, SHB and LPB went against the general trend with gains of 2-3%.

In terms of sectors, the real estate sector ended its 8-session winning streak with a nearly 1% decline. The adjustment pressure was widespread, with many large-cap stocks falling by more than 1%, such as VIC, VHM, VRE, KDH, KBC, NVL, SIP, PDR, DXG, NLG, CEO, and TCH.

The financial group also exerted significant pressure on the overall market as red dominated banking and securities stocks, notably CTG (-1.41%), VPB (-1.98%), MBB (-1.65%), STB (-1.16%), VCB (-0.74%), HCM (-1.7%), SSI (-0.74%), FTS (-1.88%), BSI (-1.42%), and VCI (-0.89%). A few names that attracted positive buying interest were SHB (+3.11%), LPB (+2.02%), ABB (+3.61%), PGB (+2.05%), VND (+2.01%), and BMI (+2.13%).

On the other hand, the energy group continued to recover, leading the market with a nearly 2.5% gain. Stocks with notable increases in trading volume included PVD (+1.74%), PVS (+0.91%), BSR (+3.11%), PVC (+1.83%), MGC (+1.73%), etc. In addition, the telecommunications sector also jumped nearly 2% thanks to the recovery of VGI (+2.78%), YEG (+3.06%), TTN (+1.03%), and SGT (+4.47%). The utilities sector also recorded many notable points, such as POW hitting the ceiling price, GAS (+1.32%), GEG (+3.99%), CNG (+1.62%), BWE (+2.06%), and REE (+0.71%).

The VN-Index‘s decline with trading volume falling below the 20-day average indicates investors’ cautious sentiment. If this scenario continues in the coming sessions, the index is likely to retest the old peak overcome in June 2024 (equivalent to the 1,290-1,310 range). This area will also serve as strong support for the index. Currently, the MACD indicator is likely to give a sell signal again after narrowing the gap with the signal line. If this state occurs in the coming sessions, the short-term outlook will be quite pessimistic.

II. TREND AND PRICE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS

VN-Index – MACD indicator is likely to give a sell signal

The VN-Index‘s decline, with trading volume falling below the 20-day average, indicates investors’ cautious sentiment. If this scenario continues in the coming sessions, the index is likely to retest the old peak overcome in June 2024 (equivalent to the 1,290-1,310 range). This range will also act as strong support for the index.

Currently, the MACD indicator is likely to give a sell signal again after narrowing the gap with the signal line. If this state occurs in the coming sessions, the short-term outlook will be quite pessimistic.

HNX-Index – Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern appears

The upward momentum of the HNX-Index narrowed with the appearance of the Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern. At the same time, the trading volume fell below the 20-day average, indicating that money is flowing out of the market.

Currently, the index is testing the old peak of June 2024 (equivalent to the 246-250 range). If, in the coming period, the index surpasses this range, it will have the opportunity to continue toward the old peak of September 2023 (equivalent to the 255-259 range). However, trading volume needs to exceed the 20-day average to maintain optimism.

Analysis of Money Flow

Fluctuation of smart money flow: The Negative Volume Index indicator of VN-Index cut above the EMA 20 line. If this state continues in the next session, the risk of an unexpected drop (thrust down) will be limited.

Fluctuation of foreign capital flow: Foreigners net sold again in the March 18, 2025, session. If foreign investors maintain this action in the coming sessions, the situation will become even more pessimistic.

III. MARKET STATISTICS ON MARCH 18, 2025