The Golden Pause: Expert Insights on Gold’s Price Plateau

Gold prices continued their upward trajectory for the third consecutive week, with spot gold ending the week at $3,015.43 per ounce and gold futures for April 2025 at $3,021.40.

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe-haven investment during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and it tends to shine in low-interest-rate environments. This year, gold has broken records 16 times, reaching an all-time high of $3,057.21 per ounce last Thursday (March 20).

Meanwhile, gold bar prices at SJC ended the week at VND 94.4-97.4 million per tael (buying – selling), with SJC gold rings priced at VND 94.3-97 million per tael (buying – selling).

As expected, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but signaled two cuts of 0.25 percentage points each by the end of the year. Analysts predict the next cut will take place in July 2025.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump still intends to impose new reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

With gold prices firmly above the $3,000 per ounce level, the latest Kitco News survey showed that many analysts and traders believed that gold was due for a breather after its recent rally.

“I expect gold to trade sideways next week,” said Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “Gold may hold above $3,000 through the end of March 2025. In early April, the gold market could become more active as the US seems more serious about tariffs.”

“Prices will come down,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “It’s normal and actually healthy for gold to pause after a rally. It could drift lower for quite some time. The market seems concerned that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates, but that’s not why gold went up; there’s been no change in any of the drivers of the gold price.”

“I expect prices to come down,” said Mark Leibovit, analyst at VR Metals/Resource Letter. “Gold has gotten a bit overbought.”

“It will go down,” said Rich Checkan, president and CEO of Asset Strategies International. “I expect gold to fall below $3,000 and then trade sideways before moving higher again. Next week will be the first leg down. Longer-term, I have no doubt that prices will go higher. But in the short term, I expect a pullback.”

“It will go up,” said Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Barchart.com. “I believe the market will react that way in the near future, regardless of the current price.”

“Trading data shows that the gold market is being positively supported by traders/investors using gold as a hedge against global economic and political instability. Fed Chairman Powell said something similar last week, and the most frequently used word in the latest US central bank meeting was ‘uncertainty’. Therefore, demand from other areas is not really important, as gold is still considered a safe haven,” said Newsom.

“It will go up,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “I don’t think traders have stopped buying, and I think prices will continue to exceed $3,000. Of course, the $3,000 level could deter buyers for a while, but I don’t see any clear signs that profit-taking will increase, while most of the drivers of the rise are still ongoing.”

Neil Welsh, metals director at Britannia Global Markets, said: “Gold doesn’t seem to be losing its upward momentum.” “Market participants are well aware of the Fed’s interest rate stance, ongoing geopolitical risks, uncertainty surrounding US trade and tariff policies, and the shift away from other asset classes. None of these factors are likely to change significantly in the near future, making it difficult for gold to reverse its current upward trend.”

“However, with increased gold trading, there is always the risk of price fluctuations, both up and down.” “In the short term, the $3,000 level is likely to act as an important psychological support, attracting buyers on dips,” said Welsh.

Adam Button, currency strategy director at Forexlive.com, noted some interesting market moves:

“A lot of people were waiting for gold to hit $3,000 to take profits, and they got that last week. And the Chinese economy has picked up a bit. I think a lot of money has come from China.”

Button pointed out another important factor: a weaker US dollar. “What’s missing to push gold higher is a weaker dollar, and we’re starting to see signs of a gradually weakening dollar this year,” he said. “The dollar has been strong for many years. If the dollar enters a multi-year down cycle, that would be a great reason to buy gold.”

This week, 18 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with an almost equal number expecting gold prices to rise and fall. Seven analysts, or 39%, predicted that gold would rise next week, while five analysts, or 28%, expected a price drop. The remaining six analysts, or 33%, were neutral on gold.

Meanwhile, out of 372 retail investors who took part in the survey, 220 people, or 59%, expected gold prices to rise next week, while 82 people, or 22%, predicted a price drop. The remaining 70 investors, or 19%, were neutral on gold.

Next week, the gold market will be watching economic data from the US, including the S&P Global flash PMI for manufacturing and services, to be released on Monday, consumer confidence and new home sales data on Tuesday (March 25), durable goods orders, pending home sales, and weekly US jobless claims.

Reference: Kitco News