According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in 2024, Vietnam’s agricultural, forestry, and aquatic product exports to the United States reached 13.8 billion USD, accounting for 21.6% of the total export turnover of the entire agricultural, forestry, and aquatic industry. With this result, the United States continues to be the top export market, followed closely by China with 13.6 billion USD.
In just over a week, the export activities of various agricultural products have witnessed unpredictable fluctuations due to the United States’ announcement of very high retaliatory tariffs, followed by a decision a few days later to temporarily suspend the imposition of these tariffs for 90 days, which caused a sudden shift in the situation.
THE “VOLATILITY” OF BLACK PEPPER AND COFFEE PRICES
As the leading exporter of black pepper to the United States, Mr. Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phuc Sinh Group, said that from April 2, 2025, to April 9, 2025, most importing partners from the United States requested to postpone or cancel import orders for black pepper due to the risk of increased tariffs. However, from April 10, 2025 (after the United States temporarily suspended retaliatory tariffs) until now, partners have been actively sending messages to request imports, and orders have been pouring in. The sudden surge in orders has forced the enterprise to increase production to three shifts.
“From April 2, 2025, to April 9, 2025, most importing partners from the United States requested to postpone or cancel import orders for black pepper due to the risk of increased tariffs. However, from April 10, 2025, until now, partners have been actively sending messages to request imports, and orders have been pouring in. The sudden surge in orders has forced the enterprise to increase production to three shifts.”
Mr. Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phuc Sinh Group
According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, in 2024, Vietnam exported approximately 230,000 tons of black pepper, earning 1.31 billion USD. Of this, exports to the United States reached 72,300 tons of black pepper, bringing in about 409 million USD, accounting for 31% of Vietnam’s total black pepper export turnover. In the first quarter of 2025, Vietnamese enterprises exported nearly 47,300 tons of black pepper of all kinds, with a value of 324.6 million USD, a decrease of 16.7% in volume but an increase of 37.8% in value (due to high pepper prices) compared to the same period in 2024. Of this, 11,019 tons were exported to the United States, earning 83.4 million USD.
Domestic black pepper prices fell slightly in early April 2025, then started to fluctuate: on April 11, black pepper prices surged by 4,000-5,000 VND/kg compared to April 10, reaching 153,000-155,000 VND/kg, and by April 15, black pepper prices in Vietnam’s key growing areas ranged from 156,000 to 157,000 VND/kg.
Regarding coffee, the export price of Vietnamese Robusta coffee in the second half of March 2025 set a record of over 5,700 USD/ton, an increase of more than 73% compared to the same period in 2024. However, in the first ten days of April 2025, the export price of coffee suddenly dropped to below 4,800 USD/ton (April 9). From April 11 onwards, coffee prices in the world market and Vietnam’s coffee export prices have recovered.
On the London Stock Exchange, as of April 15, 2025, coffee prices rose for the fifth consecutive session with Robusta, as the United States tariff issues subsided. Specifically, on April 15, 2025, London coffee prices increased by 3.22 – 3.92% compared to April 14, 2025. In detail, the price of Robusta coffee for May 2025 delivery rose by 164 USD/ton to 5,263 USD/ton. The July 2025 delivery price increased by 190 USD/ton to 5,239 USD/ton. Nevertheless, coffee prices have not returned to their previous highs before the “storm” of US tariffs. Earlier, on April 1, 2025, the price of Robusta coffee for May 2025 delivery was 5,366 USD/ton.
Currently, Vietnam’s coffee export prices have recovered to the 5,200 USD/ton mark, but they are still much lower than the peak in March 2025. In the domestic market, if on April 8, 2025, coffee prices fell to around 120,000 VND/kg, then by April 15, 2025, they had risen to 130,400 – 134,000 VND/kg.
“SILENCE” FOR MARKET RESTRUCTURING
Mr. Ngo Sy Hoai, Vice Chairman and General Secretary of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST), said that taking advantage of the time when the United States temporarily suspended retaliatory tariffs on Vietnam for 90 days, VIFOREST and local associations have been promoting trade and diversifying markets. Meanwhile, many other enterprises are also planning to adjust and expand their consumption markets.
For now, during the 3-month suspension of retaliatory tariffs, enterprises will take the opportunity to boost exports of existing orders. At the same time, they will strengthen connections and expand to markets such as Europe, Japan, South Korea, and others. This will be accompanied by adjustments in customer structure, focusing on exploiting the domestic market, training and improving workers’ skills, reducing costs, and rationalizing production to consolidate internal strength.
Mr. Phan Hoang Duy, Deputy General Director of Can Tho Import-Export Seafood Joint Stock Company (Caseamex), said that Caseamex currently exports its tra fish products to more than 30 markets, with the United States accounting for over 50% of the total output. The United States is the most important market due to its stability and ability to influence other markets. “These days, the enterprise is actively diversifying its markets, reconnecting with old partners in Europe, Canada, Brazil, Japan, Australia, and some Asian countries. At the same time, we are applying cost-cutting measures; adjusting our customer structure, focusing on the domestic market, training and improving workers’ skills, reducing costs, and rationalizing production to consolidate our internal strength,” said Mr. Duy.
According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), with an annual seafood export turnover of about 2 billion USD to the United States, accounting for one-fifth of Vietnam’s seafood export value, this market is not only holding the number one market share but also has a high orientation for the Vietnamese seafood industry. The United States is currently the number one market for shrimp and tuna and the second-largest market for tra fish in Vietnam.
“Right now, Vietnamese seafood exporters should focus on expediting shipments that are in transit or en route to the destination country, at least for the next 90 days, to minimize the risk of high taxes. At the same time, they should proactively restructure their strategies and prepare plans to find, expand, and replace the US market with other markets such as ASEAN and the Middle East to build a resilient system,” recommended Ms. Le Hang, a market analyst at VASEP.
DEEP PROCESSING AND MARKET DIVERSIFICATION ARE KEY FACTORS
Fully aware of the risks of “putting all eggs in one basket,” many agricultural product processing and manufacturing enterprises are currently implementing a market expansion strategy, diversifying partners, and investing in modern production technology to enhance quality control capabilities and transparent traceability.
As a leading enterprise in the processing and export of fruit products, especially aloe vera and coconut jelly, Mr. Pham Van Thu, Chairman of the Board of Directors of GC Food, said that in the past, exports were mainly to the US market, but now their products have reached 22 countries. GC Food expects India to be one of the prominent growth markets in 2025. In addition, GC Food continues to develop the ASEAN market, such as Malaysia and Indonesia…
The full content of the article was published in the Vietnam Economic Magazine No. 16-2025 released on April 21, 2025. Please visit the link below to read the full article: Â
https://postenp.phaha.vn/tap-chi-kinh-te-viet-nam/detail/1354
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