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Should You Invest in Real Estate Amidst the Proposed Merger of Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, and Ba Ria – Vung Tau?

11 May, 2025

Relieving Population Pressure

According to Savills Vietnam, the proposal to merge Ho Chi Minh City with Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau is being expedited. As per the timeline, the merger resolution will take effect from September 1st, and the new Ho Chi Minh City will commence operations from September 15th.

Post-merger, the new administrative unit will retain the name Ho Chi Minh City, becoming a mega-city in the Southeast region. The political and administrative center of the merged Ho Chi Minh City will be located in the existing Ho Chi Minh City. Additionally, two auxiliary administrative centers will be maintained at the current locations of the other two provinces.

The merger will create a new urban economic center with strong competitiveness. Photo: Pham Nguyen.

Ms. Giang Huynh, Director of Savills Ho Chi Minh City Research, believes that the merger will establish a new urban economic hub with robust competitiveness, maximizing the natural, geographical, and infrastructural advantages of the three localities.

The adjacent locations and well-connected transportation system among the three areas facilitate more efficient urban economic and spatial planning. The expanded land area provides opportunities for population dispersal strategies, the development of satellite cities, and the construction of modern new towns.

Moreover, the transportation infrastructure is expected to be standardized, particularly the road, waterway, and seaport systems, enhancing regional connectivity and improving logistics capabilities.

“To ensure the sustainability and optimization of the administrative merger and urban land utilization, four key factors need to be addressed simultaneously,” said Ms. Giang Huynh.

Firstly, administrative and land procedures should be reviewed and streamlined. Secondly, a comprehensive master plan should be developed, integrating land use and infrastructure planning. Thirdly, an efficient public investment disbursement mechanism for infrastructure needs to be established. Lastly, a clear and unified development strategy is essential.

The enlarged land area post-merger provides more flexibility for new planning decisions, shaping future infrastructure and residential areas. This helps address population dispersal challenges and unlocks new housing supply.

“However, these areas need to ensure good accessibility to the city center to attract genuine residential demand. Additionally, a strategy for developing new infrastructure and attracting investors to these areas is crucial,” added Ms. Giang Huynh.

Similarly, Mr. Tran Khanh Quang, CEO of Viet An Hoa Real Estate Investment Joint Stock Company, opined that the merger of Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau into Ho Chi Minh City would propel its development to new heights, comparable to major global cities by integrating industry, services, and seaports.

Specifically, Binh Duong has been well-planned for industrial development, and its infrastructure is conducive to project construction. Ba Ria-Vung Tau is also witnessing remarkable growth, especially in its seaports, with the Phu My Port being a pivotal hub in the southern region.

What Should Investors Do?

Mr. Nguyen Viet Hung, Chairman of Lien Minh Khu Tay Joint Stock Company, stated that the information about the potential merger of Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau into Ho Chi Minh City, or Long An with Tay Ninh, could trigger land speculation due to development expectations.

After the merger of the provinces, there will certainly be a price increase in the real estate market.

However, whether this speculation materializes depends on the post-merger infrastructure, economic, and social development plans. It is crucial to discern if the price surge is driven by genuine development prospects or speculative “shark” investors creating an artificial frenzy based on merger information.

“There will undoubtedly be price fluctuations after the merger, but investors must thoroughly research each area to discern whether the increase is due to actual potential or speculative bubbles,” warned Mr. Hung.

Drawing on past experiences from previous administrative mergers, Mr. Hung noted that some mergers had led to land price hikes. Occasionally, real estate prices surged rapidly in the short term, only to witness a sharp decline shortly after when the merger failed to live up to expectations, especially regarding infrastructure development.

During this phase, Mr. Hung advised investors to remain vigilant. In this merger, investors should base their decisions on two critical factors. Firstly, the existing infrastructure, economy, services, and other aspects of each area should be assessed. Secondly, predict the subsequent development and direction of these areas post-merger.

“Investors should refrain from acting on rumors and be cautious of speculative bubbles artificially created by land brokers and savvy real estate businesses,” he added.

In a conversation with Tien Phong, Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan, Southern Region Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, revealed that the circulating information about the potential merger of Ho Chi Minh City with other localities had sparked intense market interest in the real estate sector.

Real estate prices in Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau have increased following the merger news.

According to Mr. Tuan, while some viewed this as an opportunity to buy ahead of the curve, others cautioned about potential risks associated with such information. Based on big data analysis, three prevalent questions among interested parties were identified: which areas are attracting the most attention, whether real estate prices will increase, and what are the associated risks.

Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan further shared that while selling prices had increased, there were signs of overheating in certain locations. Specifically, real estate prices in Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau had risen following the merger news.

“The price increase is primarily driven by market sentiment, but investors should exercise caution in areas showing signs of overheating,” warned Mr. Tuan.

He elaborated that, during this phase, real estate investments entail considerable risks, especially for newcomers to the market. Property prices are influenced not only by merger information but also by various factors such as infrastructure, employment opportunities, immigration, and the local economic foundation.

“Investors should be vigilant against potential risks, including the possibility of overpaying, especially in overheated areas. While the merger presents a significant opportunity, it is essential to remain prudent, buy in the right places at the right time, and avoid following the herd,” advised Mr. Tuan.

Considering the unique strengths of each area, Ms. Giang Huynh assessed that Ho Chi Minh City is currently the center of finance, services, accommodations, and housing, boasting the largest population.

However, its infrastructure is under immense pressure due to high concentration, resulting in worsening traffic congestion. Binh Duong is regarded as the industrial powerhouse, experiencing rapid urbanization. Ba Ria-Vung Tau boasts strengths in both tourism and industry.

“The merger of these three areas will forge a robust and diverse economic region, encompassing industries, housing, trade, services, and tourism. To unlock this potential, implementing a synchronized planning strategy and efficient administrative procedures is paramount,” emphasized Ms. Giang Huynh.

Duy Quang

– 11:47 10/05/2025