The derivatives session’s expiry yesterday helped VN30 test the peak and touched exactly 1404 points, and today it turned to decrease. F1 discounted early for this scenario, and when the bank stocks confirmed it, the short-term profit-taking pressure increased significantly. This is an opportunity to restructure and optimize the capital structure.
Today’s market would have been more chaotic if VIC and VHM had weakened together. These two codes held up quite well, especially VIC, which is still at a very high price. VPL has just had a limited amount of goods appear, and the price is still rising strongly. If the pillars unanimously weaken next week, the adjustment pace could accelerate.
In general, this short-term increase has also exceeded expectations due to a strong psychological response from the cooling of trade tensions. The information base is not negative; the market is facing a strong threshold, and the realization of profits is strong. Supply and demand dynamics can disrupt the market in the short term without any unfavorable news.
The strong cash flow this week is real, the psychology is excited, but the market is also taking profits. When encountering a strong threshold, investors who are making a profit will have restless psychology and disperse. To surpass the peak, the market needs a big enough boost, which can be unexpected information or a sudden cash flow. Otherwise, there will be a difference of opinion. A satisfied group will withdraw profits or at least reduce the ratio, and it is not too late to return to a strong market. A group does not want to buy more but waits to surpass the peak and then calculates. This session’s stock prices were widely adjusted with liquidity down more than 20% on the two floors (excluding agreements), confirming weak demand.
Today’s technical reaction shows that it is difficult for the market to have a new peak at this time, or at least in the short term. The overwhelming pressure on capitalization of the declining group and the fragility of the pillars are a warning; if the pillars are under further pressure, the adjustment pace will increase, and the selling psychology will spread.
This session still has traces of individual cash flow; many stocks still rose strongly with high liquidity. This is a typical phenomenon because today is the first clear manifestation of profit-taking. Stocks with the best profits are more likely to be sold strongly, while the group with room will be less pressured. Even if the market really adjusts, it is just short-term fluctuations because there are no new unfavorable factors, just expectations are reflected as “too much.” The adjustment pace is to balance expectations while waiting for more critical events. In this situation, the stock ratio should be reduced, especially speculative positions, to restructure the portfolio and optimize the capital structure.
The derivatives market today reversed the term, and F2 yesterday discounted more than 5 points. VN30 reacted unsuccessfully with the 1404.xx milestone, which was a good opportunity to Short at the beginning of the day, but the basis was too wide a discount, while VIC strengthened a beat. However, when the group of banks weakened and VIC also turned around, the Short opportunity was clearer. Generally, in the whole session, just observe VIC and the pillars of banks and FPT to ensure that VN30 only goes down.
The unfavorable performance of the banking group and the potential for VIC to adjust are reinforcing the likelihood of a short-term market adjustment. This is a purely supply and demand-driven decline, so it won’t be strong. The strategy is to wait to buy back stocks, Long/Short flexibility with derivatives.
VN30 closed the session at 1384.44, right at a milestone. The next session’s resistance is 1394; 1406; 1414; 1420. Support is 1377; 1369; 1365; 1356; 1351; 1345; 1334.
“Stock Blog” is personal and does not represent the opinion of VnEconomy. The views and evaluations are of the individual investor, and VnEconomy respects the author’s views and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for issues related to the investment evaluations and opinions posted.
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