On May 15th, the State Bank of Vietnam set the daily reference exchange rate at 24,970 VND/USD, a decrease of 3 VND from the previous day.
Commercial banks also reported a significant drop in USD rates. Vietcombank offered a buying rate of 25,740 VND/USD and a selling rate of 26,100 VND/USD, a decrease of 20 VND from the previous day. Eximbank followed suit, adjusting its rates to 25,740 VND/USD for buying and 26,090 VND/USD for selling.
Compared to the peak rate of around 26,200 VND/USD in late April, the USD rate has decreased by approximately 0.38%.
The unexpected cooldown in Vietnam’s USD rates comes despite the US dollar’s strength in the international market. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 100.8, reflecting a 2.6% increase since its lowest point in late April, and has maintained its high level in recent days.
Cooling USD rates at commercial banks
Despite the respite, analysts predict continued pressure on exchange rates in the coming period. This pressure stems from factors such as the Vietnamese Treasury’s purchase of USD from commercial banks in April 2025, totaling 110 million USD, which tightened foreign currency supply.
“Amidst trade uncertainties due to unpredictable tariff policies from the US, businesses tend to have higher foreign currency demands,” said Tran Khanh Hien, Head of Analysis at MBS Securities Corporation. “The sharp drop in interbank interest rates to a 13-month low at the end of the month caused the VND-USD interest rate differential to turn negative, reaching its highest level since the beginning of the year. These factors have exerted significant pressure on exchange rates.”
Previously, economist Can Van Luc also noted that while the VND/USD rate has risen over 2% since the beginning of the year, lower than initial predictions, the VND is still depreciating against the USD and other regional currencies.
“The VND remains a weak currency compared to its regional peers. The demand for foreign currency in import-export activities during the first four months of this year has been more volatile, and there are concerns about hoarding foreign currencies and gold. The exchange rate is predicted to increase by around 3-4% for the whole year,” he added.
Exchange rate movement of some regional currencies since the beginning of 2025
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As of May 16th, the USD exchange rate at banks showed an upward trend. Conversely, the black-market USD rate unexpectedly plummeted by 80 VND, trading at 26,300 – 26,400 VND per USD.
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The USD exchange rates at banks witnessed a mixed trend as the SBV kept the daily reference rate unchanged at 24,973 VND/USD. Domestic gold bar prices witnessed a slight dip on Thursday morning, while gold ring prices showed a significant variation across brands.
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The An Binh Securities (ABS) team believes that this period could present significant opportunities in the stock market, which often reacts to economic news.
The Exchange Rate in Vietnam: An Unusual Development
The US Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of foreign currencies, fell nearly 9% in the first four months of the year on global markets. However, in Vietnam, the story is different, with the USD exchange rate appreciating. Since the beginning of the year, the USD has gained around 2.2% at commercial banks in the country.
