Vietnam’s Coffee Exports: Insights and Market Dynamics
According to preliminary statistics from the Customs Department, in April 2025, Vietnam exported 166,606 tons of coffee, equivalent to USD 965.83 million. This represents an 8% decrease in volume and a 9.2% decrease in turnover compared to the same period in 2024. The average export price of coffee in April 2025 reached USD 5,797 per ton, a 1.3% decrease compared to March 2025.
In the first four months of 2025, the European Union (EU) was Vietnam’s largest coffee export market, accounting for 39% of total export turnover. Germany led the way, accounting for nearly 17% of the country’s total coffee export volume and turnover, with figures of 112,843 tons and USD 628.12 million, respectively, at a price of USD 5,566.4 per ton. This reflects a significant increase of 17% in volume, 97.6% in turnover, and 69% in price compared to the first four months of 2024.
COFFEE PRICES MOVE CONTRARY TO EXPECTATIONS
During the same period, Italy was the second-largest market, with an 8.7% share in volume and an 8.1% share in turnover. Exports to Italy decreased by 21.8% in volume but increased by 33.8% in turnover and 71.1% in price, reaching 57,798 tons, equivalent to USD 307.66 million, at a price of USD 5,323 per ton.
Coffee exports to Spain witnessed a 9.4% decrease in volume but a substantial 67.1% increase in turnover and a 51.4% rise in price, amounting to 50,142 tons, equivalent to USD 292.55 million, at an average price of USD 5,834.4 per ton. Spain accounted for 7.5% of the total volume and 7.7% of the total turnover.
“Overall, in the first four months of 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 665,889 tons, equivalent to nearly USD 3.8 billion, a 9.8% decrease in volume but a remarkable 51.8% increase in turnover compared to the same period in 2024. The average export price during this period was USD 5,700 per ton, a 68.2% increase compared to the previous year.”
Customs Department.
Regarding the US market, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VCCA) reported that from April 10, 2025, to May 12, 2025, the market experienced significant fluctuations due to the impact of the country’s retaliatory tariffs on imported coffee. However, as the US accounts for just over 8% of Vietnam’s total coffee export value, these tariffs have not caused significant concerns for the industry.
The VCCA emphasized, “The US’s imposition of a temporary 10% tariff on coffee from all countries has increased import costs and affected the supply chain and market sentiment.” The association also noted that the National Coffee Association (NCA) of the US has called on the administration to exempt coffee from these tariffs and warned that coffee prices in the US could rise by up to 50% if import taxes are not reduced. These concerns about a potential global economic recession and trade tensions have made investors more cautious, leading to reduced purchases and increased sell-offs in the coffee market.
However, coffee prices have moved contrary to the usual patterns. Typically, during the peak harvest season in Vietnam (from November of the previous year to April of the current year), coffee prices tend to decrease. From May to October, when there is no harvest, prices usually increase. But this year, prices rose sharply during the harvest season. From the end of April 2025 until now, especially as the harvest season has ended, coffee prices are showing signs of decline.
Specifically, domestic coffee prices in the Central Highlands region on May 13, 2025, decreased by VND 400–500 per kg compared to the previous week, falling to VND 127,500–127,800 per kg. Compared to the end of March 2025, prices have decreased by VND 7,000 per kg. Globally, coffee prices fell sharply on the London and New York exchanges during the online trading session on May 13, 2025.
On the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee for July 2025 delivery decreased by USD 174 per ton (a 3.33% drop) to USD 5,052 per ton compared to May 12, 2025. Similarly, for September 2025 delivery, the price decreased by USD 168 per ton (a 3.24% drop) to USD 5,013 per ton, and for November 2025 delivery, the price decreased by USD 161 per ton (a 3.14% drop) to USD 4,961 per ton.
Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange also reversed their upward trend. Specifically, for July 2025 delivery, the price decreased by 14.40 cents per Ib (a 3.82% drop) to 372.95 cents per Ib. For September 2025 delivery, the price decreased by 14 cents per Ib (a 3.66% drop) to 368.45 cents per Ib, and for December 2025 delivery, the price decreased by 13.20 cents per Ib (a 3.52% drop) compared to May 12, 2025.
Despite the decrease in prices, Mr. Le Duc Huy, Vice Chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, stated that coffee inventories among farmers are currently low. Given the impressive export turnover of USD 3.8 billion in the first four months of 2025, the industry is well-positioned to reach a record turnover of USD 7 billion in 2025, solidifying Vietnam’s position as the world’s leading exporter of Robusta coffee.
COFFEE MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
Analyses of the global coffee market indicate that in the 19th week of 2025 (from May 5 to May 12, 2025), coffee prices were stuck in a narrow range due to the impact of US tariff policies. The US has implemented a 10% universal tariff since April 10, 2025, on all imported goods, including coffee, and is negotiating separate trade agreements with different countries. Meanwhile, coffee has never faced US tariffs before, not even during colonial times. This situation has left both roasters and coffee suppliers struggling to deal with the tax issue.
According to the contract of the Green Coffee Association of the USA, most coffee shipments to the US will have the tariff costs at the destination market “borne by the buyer.” However, Reuters quoted a Europe-based coffee trader who ships beans to the US as saying that no one (commercially) has “panicked” because the rules are clear.
Many US importers are asking their suppliers to bear the cost of the tariffs imposed by the US government, while at the same time refusing to accept higher coffee prices. This is the reason why coffee prices have lost their upward momentum and are now showing signs of reversing.
According to a document obtained by Reuters, food manufacturer Kraft Heinz, which sells coffee under the leading US brand Maxwell House, has asked its coffee suppliers to notify them 60 days in advance before raising prices due to Trump’s tariffs. Kraft Heinz has requested that suppliers only increase prices if the tariffs are applied permanently and immediately reduce prices if the tariffs are removed. This highlights the struggle that US companies face in dealing with the consequences of Trump’s erratic and punitive trade policies.
“The information in this document also dashes the hopes of investors in US-based companies and Trump administration officials that large buyers like Kraft Heinz can negotiate better deals from their suppliers to help offset the damage from the tariffs,” Reuters commented.
According to Food Navigator, the upward trend in Arabica coffee prices shows no signs of stopping. Unstable weather has affected productivity and put pressure on the market. The drought in major producing countries like Brazil will continue to reduce supply and make it difficult for Arabica coffee prices to fall.
Food Navigator also predicted that if the negotiations between Vietnam and the US result in a tariff threshold for Vietnamese coffee of 28% or higher, Vietnam’s coffee exports will be at a disadvantage compared to Brazil, which will enjoy lower tariffs. In that case, Robusta coffee prices would fall sharply, while Arabica coffee prices would remain high…
The full content of this article was published in the Vietnam Economic Magazine, Issue 20-2025, released on May 19, 2025. Dear readers, please find the article here.
https://postenp.phaha.vn/tap-chi-kinh-te-viet-nam/detail/1384
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