Where would the Vietnamese stock market be without the Vingroup conglomerate?

Cafe với Chứng: VN-Index Rebounds as Large-Cap Stocks Surge

In the latest edition of Cafe với Chứng, SSI’s Chief Economist, Mr. Nguyen Luu Hung, shared a positive development: Vietnamese stocks bucked the global downward trend last week. As a result, the VN-Index has recovered its losses following the US tariff-related event.

According to Mr. Hung, the main driver of the market’s gains came from large-cap stocks, especially the Vingroup group (VIC, VHM, VPL, VRE). “If it weren’t for the contribution of this stock group, the VN-Index would likely have fallen quite sharply and wouldn’t be at the 1,300 level as it is today,” SSI’s Chief Economist analyzed.

Explaining the surge in some large-cap stocks, Mr. Hung attributed it to investor expectations regarding Resolution 68 on promoting the private sector. “In reality, Resolution 68 doesn’t just impact large enterprises; small and medium-sized enterprises can also benefit. However, parts 5 and 6 of the Resolution specifically mention building large private enterprises and supporting their participation in important national infrastructure projects. Large-cap stocks could benefit from this, so the price increase isn’t unreasonable,” assessed SSI’s Chief Economist.

Another factor influencing the market’s performance was foreign transaction activity. After strong net buying for two consecutive weeks, foreign transactions slowed and turned to net selling last week. However, Mr. Hung doesn’t consider this a significant issue for the Vietnamese stock market. Developed markets are experiencing strong capital outflow pressure, and there is a trend of capital flowing into emerging markets in many countries, and Vietnam could benefit from this trend.

In terms of valuation, SSI’s Chief Economist believes that the VN-Index’s P/E ratio is still relatively low compared to the average, making it reasonable for investment. However, it’s prudent to remain cautious in the short term as the number of stocks surpassing the MA20 (20-day moving average) is declining. Looking longer-term, Mr. Hung believes the situation is stable.

Additionally, SSI’s Chief Economist drew attention to upcoming events, both domestic and international, which could impact the Vietnamese stock market. He suggested that investors pay closer attention to the US market during this period, citing factors like the MSCI review, NVIDIA’s outlook, the PCE index, and the Fed’s meeting.

Another point to note, not included in the event calendar, is the issue of tariffs. According to SSI’s Chief Economist, an unexpected announcement regarding tariffs (if any), contrary to expectations, would impact the stock market. Mr. Hung also emphasized the market’s unpredictability during this period and for the rest of the year, likening it to “a north-easterly wind blowing in the middle of summer.”