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Deposit interest rates stabilize at low levels

After several consecutive months of banks cutting deposit interest rates to promote cheap capital within the banking system, the trend seemed to have cooled down by May. The market no longer witnessed simultaneous adjustments, but instead, a more cautious and polarized approach among banks, with only a few reducing interest rates.

According to the State Bank of Vietnam, as of the end of May, 30 credit institutions had lowered deposit interest rates, with adjustments ranging from 0-1.05%/year.

However, in May, only four banks, including VPBank, MB, Eximbank, and GPBank, reduced their deposit interest rates. Similarly, in April, only nine institutions made such adjustments, indicating a slowdown in the rate reduction trend compared to the beginning of the year.

By early June, only three banks publicly offered deposit interest rates above 6%/year. These were Bac A Bank, HDBank, and the digital bank Vikki Bank, a subsidiary of HDBank.

Specifically, at Bac A Bank, the highest interest rate of 6.2%/year is applied to deposits of 1 billion VND or more for 18-36 months. Additionally, customers depositing 1 billion VND for 13-15 months also enjoy a rate of 6%/year, while those with lower amounts for the same tenure receive 5.9-6%/year.

HDBank offers an interest rate of 6%/year for a 15-month term, while the highest rate of 6.1%/year is for an 18-month term.

Vikki Bank advertises an interest rate of 6%/year for terms of 13 months or longer. Online savings rates at this bank range from 4.15%/year (for one month) to 5.95%/year (for 12 months), showing a significant difference between short and long-term rates.

In contrast, the state-owned bank group (Agribank, Vietcombank, VietinBank, and BIDV) continues to maintain low-interest rates. Their highest rate is currently at 5%/year, while the lowest is around 1.6%/year, and for some tenures, it’s as low as 1.59%/year…

These developments indicate that deposit interest rates are stabilizing at low levels.

Will interest rates continue to fall?

According to some experts, the deposit interest rates of banks in Vietnam are at their lowest in the last two years. This situation occurs as the State Bank of Vietnam remains committed to stabilizing interest rates and supporting credit growth.

According to BSC Research and KBSV Research, the average deposit interest rate at banks has decreased by 6-7% compared to the peak in 2023.

In their latest interest rate forecast, ABS Research predicts that interest rates will likely remain low or slightly decrease in the coming period due to stable banking system liquidity and manageable inflationary pressures. However, interest rates also face pressure from improving credit demand and competition from alternative investment channels such as real estate and securities.

Previously, analysts predicted a slight increase in deposit interest rates but expected it to occur towards the end of the year. Specifically, KBSV Research forecasted a 1-2% increase in the new cycle, starting from the fourth quarter of this year.

Mirae Asset Securities believes that banks will have limited room to flexibly manage liquidity as they did before. The pressure to balance capital sources will force banks to narrow the gap between credit and deposits, even using less popular tools like certificates of deposit due to their high costs.