The Mystifying Southern Gardens

Mr. V, a well-known investor based in Thu Duc City, Ho Chi Minh City, shared his experience of purchasing two plots of garden land in Dong Nai Province in mid-2021 for VND 2 billion and VND 2.8 billion, respectively. However, his investment group has been unable to sell these plots since then.

In mid-2023, Mr. V attempted to sell one of the plots (the one purchased for VND 2.8 billion) for VND 3 billion. The potential buyer countered with a lower offer of VND 2.3 billion, which Mr. V refused. Since then, the plots have seen slow price appreciation. While prices have recovered compared to 2023 levels, they have not returned to the market rates of early 2022. Mr. V, fortunate to not have any bank loans on these assets, is holding onto them, awaiting a price increase. However, he is growing impatient as his capital has been tied up for almost five years.

Mr. V’s situation is not unique; many investors who rode the wave of garden and agricultural land in the provinces from 2019 to 2021 are now facing similar challenges. Mr. H, a seasoned real estate investor, shared that he had to offload a plot of land measuring nearly 3,000 square meters in late 2023 at a nearly 30% loss compared to his purchase price.

Mr. H had bought the land, located near a major road, for VND 3.6 billion in early 2021. However, due to his financial constraints, he had to sell it for VND 2.7 billion at the end of 2023. Despite the significant loss, it took a while before he found a buyer. He shared that using financial leverage in such situations could lead to even more substantial losses. The provincial garden land market has shown no signs of improvement over the past four years, forcing him to accept the sale at a loss. In contrast, investors with stronger financial backing have chosen to hold on to their assets.

While there are signs of improvement in the provincial residential land market near Ho Chi Minh City, the garden and agricultural land segments continue to lag. The withdrawal of investors from this market, with no signs of their return, has resulted in stagnant liquidity for this asset class.

Currently, garden land prices in Dong Nai, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, and Binh Thuan provinces are still 10-25% lower than the average prices at the beginning of 2022, depending on the area. Some plots near major roads, purchased at the beginning of 2021, saw a nearly 20% price increase in early 2022, but the owners chose not to sell. These plots are now waiting for prices to rebound to their original purchase levels.

A fellow investor based in Thu Duc City, Ho Chi Minh City, shared that while he had profited significantly from investing in provincial garden land in the past, he is currently holding onto a “ticking bomb” in the form of a plot of land in Ham Thuan Nam, Binh Thuan, which he has been unable to sell.

According to him, land in provinces far from Ho Chi Minh City tends to have unstable liquidity. Experienced investors usually ride the initial wave, and those who buy during the market’s peak often struggle to resell their properties and face lengthy waiting periods.

However, garden land with frontage on major roads or near well-developed transportation infrastructure still holds potential. Investors with ample financial resources who can afford to wait for 5-7 years without relying on bank loans may still realize substantial profits.

Since the beginning of 2025, land brokers in the provinces have resumed their activities, but the market has not reached the same level of vibrancy as before. Local brokers have started listing properties for sale, but buyer interest remains slow.

Ms. Ng, a broker specializing in provincial garden land, noted that while investors from various places used to flock to these areas, the current market mainly comprises local investors. Land prices have increased by about 10% compared to 2023, and most of the properties on the market are from investors who purchased during the 2020-2021 period, many of whom are based in Ho Chi Minh City.

From now until the end of 2025, the garden land market in provinces near Ho Chi Minh City is not expected to see significant changes. Investors are hopeful that this asset class will recover by 2026, but the growth will likely be concentrated in areas closest to the city, rather than spreading across the entire region. For now, investors holding garden land are in a waiting game, anticipating a revival of the market.