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According to analysts from SovEcon, the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein is facing decreasing demand as bids from deep-sea ports have significantly declined. The price range has been adjusted downwards to RUB 16,500-16,800 per ton, equivalent to approximately $209 per ton.
This downward trend indicates a weakening market for this specific type of Russian wheat at particular ports. Due to declining export prices and a stronger ruble, export prices in rubles have reached their lowest level since September 2024.
SovEcon also reports a downward trend for old crop Russian wheat with 12.5% protein, trading in the range of $240 to $243 per ton. This presents a notable decrease compared to last week’s prices of $248 to $250 per ton.
The appreciation of the Russian ruble has posed a significant challenge to the competitiveness of Russian wheat exports. Currently, the ruble exchange rate stands at 78.61 RUB/USD, a significant shift from the previous rate of 101.67 RUB/USD.
As the ruble strengthens, the price of Russian wheat in USD also rises for international buyers, making it potentially less attractive compared to wheat from other exporting countries.
According to SovEcon’s recent estimates, Russia’s wheat exports for May are expected to reach approximately 1.9 million tons. This figure represents a significant decrease compared to the same period last year, when Russia exported 4.5 million tons of wheat. Furthermore, the current export level is also below the five-year historical average for May, which stands at 2.2 million tons.
Initial forecasts suggest that export volumes for June could reach 1.9 million tons. This is in contrast to the 4.2 million tons recorded in the previous year and the five-year average of 2.2 million tons, according to the consulting firm.
The price pressure is emerging due to optimism about the upcoming harvest. The trading of new crop wheat, expected to begin in July, also contributes to this downward pressure on prices. Andrey Sizov, CEO of SovEcon, stated, “In the coming period, the Russian wheat market will continue to face pressure.”
Vietnam is also among the buyers of Russian wheat. According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, the volume of wheat imported from Russia to Vietnam as of early June reached over 161,000 tons, valued at over $40.6 million. This reflects a significant increase of 196% in volume and 192% in value compared to the same period last year. The average import price was over $252 per ton, a slight decrease of 3%.
