Unveiling the Beneficiaries: Securities Firms Highlight Businesses Set to Thrive from Crackdown on Counterfeit Goods and Tax Regulation Enforcement

In its latest report, SSI Securities assesses that Vietnam’s macroeconomic data in May continued to maintain a strong growth momentum. SSI Research believes that with the recovery trend of the past two months, GDP in Q2 2025 is heading towards a growth rate of about 7.5% year-on-year, and could be even higher if June data shows a surge.

Notably, domestic consumption maintained double-digit growth starting from April, with services consumption performing better than goods consumption. Despite concerns about the short-term impact of the anti-counterfeiting campaign and the removal of lump-sum tax for business households with a turnover of over VND 1 billion, SSI Research argues that these impacts are only short-term. In the coming time, supportive measures for business households will continue to be implemented, including the expected passage of the Law on Business Individuals at the National Assembly session in October 2025.

The analysis report points out that the anti-counterfeiting campaign is accelerating the shift from traditional to modern trade channels. Recently, authorities have stepped up efforts to eradicate the production of counterfeit consumer goods such as milk, medicine, and cosmetics. This has raised concerns about product origins, thereby encouraging consumers to seek reliable retailers through modern channels. Modern pharmacy chains and supermarkets are expected to be the main beneficiaries of the crackdown on counterfeit goods production.

On the other hand, according to Decree 70/2025/ND-CP, which took effect on June 1, 2025, business households must be equipped to issue invoices when selling goods, thereby reducing tax evasion. Some business households have temporarily ceased operations due to difficulties in adapting to the new legal procedures. The remaining ones have to pay higher taxes and may have to increase selling prices to end consumers, thus narrowing the price gap between traditional and modern channels and encouraging consumers to shift to modern channels for shopping. Modern supermarket chains are the main beneficiaries of the increased tax collection from business households.

At the same time, e-commerce also creates a healthy environment for legitimate businesses. According to the amended Law No. 56/2024/QH15, from April 1, 2025, e-commerce platforms will have to declare and pay taxes on behalf of individuals doing business on their platforms. As a result, shops selling untaxed imported goods on e-commerce platforms will have to pay higher taxes, thereby narrowing the price gap with fully tax-compliant enterprises.

Also, according to Decision 01/2025/QD-TTg, from February 18, 2025, imported goods sent via express delivery services with a value of less than VND 1 million/order will be subject to VAT instead of VAT exemption as before. Products with a value of less than VND 1 million are mainly clothing, cosmetics, phone accessories, and small household appliances. Meanwhile, from April 1, 2025, Shopee and Tiktok Shop (the two largest e-commerce platforms in Vietnam with a combined market share of over 90% in 2024) simultaneously increased fees for sellers.

With these conditions, SSI Research assesses that modern retail enterprises will compete more fairly and less fiercely on prices. Enterprises that may benefit from these changes include The Gioi Di Dong (MWG), FPT Retail (FRT), Digiworld (DGW), and Masan’s Winmart chain (MSN).

However, SSI still cautions about future risks related to tariffs and exchange rates. The continuous rounds of negotiations between the United States and Vietnam have contributed to the expectation that the applied retaliatory tariffs will not be too high. Meanwhile, the recent increase in exchange rate pressure has not had a significant impact on inflation, mainly due to the downward trend of basic commodity prices in the international market.