The Expert’s View: Stocks Enter a “Tricky Phase”, Focus on Profit-Growth Sectors and Policy Support

Last week, there was news that the US and China had reached trade agreements. However, for the EU, trade agreements are currently difficult to achieve due to internal divisions. At the same time, the EU’s key industries will compete directly with the US, so concessions from both sides are unlikely. The trend of protectionism is increasing, which could raise inflation risks and put pressure on global growth, affecting international financial markets.

For Vietnam, Mr. Khoa believes that the impact could be twofold. On the one hand, Vietnam may benefit from supply chain shifts and new FDI inflows. On the other hand, the risk of trade scrutiny and increased tariff barriers from the US cannot be overlooked, especially as the trade surplus with the US has been rising sharply in recent years. The issue of product origin will be crucial in ensuring smooth negotiations between the two countries.

Nonetheless, the Vietnamese stock market remains attractive in the medium and long term due to its stable macro foundation, attractive valuations, and superior economic growth potential compared to the region. Efforts to upgrade the market, along with progress in completing the KRX trading system, will support foreign capital inflows.

” However, in the short term, this capital may fluctuate due to international geopolitical factors, especially the escalating tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, which could dampen global risk appetite. To maintain its attractiveness, Vietnam needs to continue institutional reforms, improve transparency, and promote policies to attract long-term capital “, emphasized the Agriseco analyst.

Regarding the unexpected popularity of oil and gas stocks, Mr. Khoa attributed it to the sector’s positive performance amid surging global oil prices, mainly due to supply disruption fears following new tensions between Israel and Iran, two influential countries in Middle Eastern security. Additionally, expectations for the progress of key projects like Lot B – O Mon and the recovery of leading businesses have attracted capital back to this sector. In the short term, oil and gas stocks may continue to perform well if oil prices maintain their upward trend and geopolitical risks persist.

In a cautious investment environment, investors will prioritize sectors with clear profit growth potential and policy benefits.

Specifically, the banking sector continues to play a leading role thanks to credit growth potential and the government’s determination to boost economic growth. The steel industry benefits from recovering selling prices and increasing construction demand, especially from public investment and real estate projects.

Following this, the real estate sector, after a strong correction, is showing signs of recovery as liquidity improves in some segments, and low-interest rates support investor sentiment. Many real estate projects have recently had legal obstacles removed and can soon be implemented.

The retail industry is also expected to grow positively due to the recovery of domestic consumption, especially in the upcoming peak tourism season. Additionally, the policy of reducing VAT to 8% may be extended until the end of 2026, and the master plan for e-commerce development will be crucial for retail businesses. These sectors could lead the market’s recovery if the current accumulation trend persists.

VN-Index May Fluctuate During the Crucial Negotiation Phase

SHS Securities

SHS Securities’ analysts predict that the VN-Index’s short-term recovery and growth trend is ending as the temporary tariff postponement period concludes. The VN-Index is entering an accumulation phase, awaiting updates on companies’ fundamentals.

Despite corrective pressure around the 1,300-point level and a sudden increase in selling pressure in the last trading session for many stocks, SHS observes that buying demand at lower prices has improved. Technically, the VN-Index can only improve significantly by surpassing the resistance around 1,325 points, corresponding to the current 20-day moving average, with psychological support at 1,300 points and stronger support around 1,270 points.

SHS forecasts that the market in June will be unpredictable as it is in the final phase of trade negotiations, with new tariffs possibly being imposed. In the short term, under the influence of escalating tensions in the Middle East, the market has experienced risk-averse selling, especially in speculative sectors such as financial services and real estate, and in stocks that have already surged.

In terms of strategy, investors should consider portfolio restructuring and be cautious about new investments in the current context. Meanwhile, maintaining a reasonable allocation with a focus on stocks with solid fundamentals, industry leaders, and sectors critical to economic growth is advisable.