What’s Next for Hanoi’s Condo Prices?

Hold Your Horses Before Spending

Mr. Tran Anh Minh from Bac Ninh recounted that back in May, he and his wife viewed an 81 sq. m apartment with two bedrooms in Thanh Tri district, Hanoi. The owner quoted a price of 50 million VND per sq. m, totaling approximately 4 billion VND.

Finding the price still exorbitant, Mr. Minh decided to wait. Recently, the owner contacted him again and lowered the price to 3.7 billion VND, equivalent to 46 million VND per sq. m. Thus, just over a month later, the apartment’s price dropped by 300 million VND. However, Mr. Minh hasn’t purchased it yet as he deems the price still elevated compared to the contract price in 2023, which was 23 million VND per sq. m; the current price is double that.

Similarly, Ms. Nguyen Thuy Linh from Hai Duong shared that nearly three months ago, she and her husband viewed a 70 sq. m, two-bedroom apartment in Bac Tu Liem district. At that time, the owner quoted a price of 62 million VND per sq. m, equivalent to 4.35 billion VND for the entire unit.

However, at the beginning of May, the real estate broker informed her that the owner urgently needed money and decided to reduce the price by 200 million VND. Still, the couple hesitated to buy. At the beginning of June, the owner directly called Ms. Linh and negotiated: if they were genuinely interested in buying, he would further decrease the price by 200 million VND.

“Despite the owner’s continuous reductions, I feel the price is still high, so I decided not to purchase it yet. Through market research, I suspect the owner initially quoted an excessively high price and is now lowering it to offload the property. Additionally, they might want to create a perception of a bargain for the buyer, but the price is still steep. My husband and I decided to wait a little longer to observe the market,” Ms. Linh shared.

In reality, apartment prices in Hanoi have been on a downward trajectory since October 2024. Data from PropertyGuru Vietnam indicates that the secondary market for Hanoi apartments started to stagnate towards the end of 2024. Selling prices and transaction volumes in many pre-owned projects have shown a downward trend compared to the same period last year. The average reduction across various projects is between 2-5%.

According to Savills’ observations, approximately 47% of secondary apartment projects in Hanoi witnessed a decrease in transfer prices in the first quarter of 2025. The reduction range varies depending on the project, but the average decrease is about 1%.

Mr. Nguyen Van Doan, a long-time Hanoi real estate broker, noted that apartment prices peaked at the end of last year. Since the beginning of this year, many owners have agreed to lower prices by 300-500 million VND per unit to attract buyers. Some owners, in addition to reducing the price, are willing to bear all transfer costs.

However, many potential buyers whom Mr. Doan introduced to these properties, despite having a genuine need for housing, are still reluctant to commit. Most of them believe that apartment prices may fall further, so they are biding their time.

Mr. Doan also shared that, in reality, even with the price drop, many apartment owners are still making a profit. Up to this point, they want to lock in their gains and either shift to other investment channels or invest in other areas.

Secondary Apartment Prices Will Continue to Decline

According to Ms. Do Thu Hang, Senior Director of Advisory and Research at Savills Hanoi, the process of decreasing apartment prices in Hanoi has mainly occurred in the secondary market and is no longer localized but is taking place on a broader scale, reflecting the clear pressure to rebalance supply and demand in the market. However, the current reduction is not yet attractive enough to trigger a wave of significant transactions.

Ms. Hang further analyzed that the downward trend stems from a shift in investors’ profit expectations. As primary market prices remain high, buyers are increasingly turning to the secondary market in search of more reasonable prices.

Facing this reality, many investors who have achieved their expected profit margins in the previous phase are adjusting their strategies, accepting narrower profit margins to boost liquidity. This very move has contributed to the wave of price reductions in the secondary market.

“The price level of secondary apartments will continue the downward trend in the coming time, especially as buyers have more options, and the market becomes more competitive,” Ms. Hang predicted.

Mr. Nguyen Anh Que, a real estate expert, also opined that during the 2020-2024 period, the supply of apartments was limited due to investment procedure complications, leading to soaring prices. However, everything has its cycle and the law of supply and demand, so when prices rise too high, the market will self-correct.

Mr. Que pointed out that Hanoi apartment prices peaked in October 2024 in terms of both transaction volume and selling prices. Since November 2024, the market has shown signs of reversing, with prices and transaction volumes declining. This trend will likely persist in the coming time.

Sharing the same viewpoint, Ms. Nguyen Hoai An, Senior Director of CBRE Hanoi, also assessed that the cooling-off of Hanoi’s apartment market is understandable after two years of surging by 35-40%. In previous quarters, prices could escalate by 8-9%, but now, they have clearly stagnated. The reason is that many owners have started to adjust their expectations after holding out for high prices. If they don’t reduce their asking prices, their assets will face low liquidity due to buyers’ general wariness of the current market.

Meanwhile, Mr. Pham Duc Toan, General Director of EZ Property, attributed the price decline in the market to many investors facing severe financial pressure. He explained that buyers of these projects are primarily speculators looking to flip properties for quick profits. They only put down about 15-20% of the total value but lack sufficient capital to make progressive payments, so they hastily resell at a loss.

Additionally, the continuous influx of new apartment supply further intensifies the pressure to offload properties.

Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan, a real estate expert, stated that Hanoi apartment prices had risen sharply for two consecutive years, surpassing the affordability of genuine homebuyers. As a result, investors have become more cautious. Moreover, the current predominant supply of high-end and luxury apartments is less suitable for the majority of buyers, leading to a decrease in absorption rates.

Alongside these factors, the wait-and-see attitude among buyers after the market’s “hot” phase also influences transactions during this period.